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Forex Blog - European Market Update: ZEW officials play down better-than-expected economic sentiment data; Equities correcting this session as Shanghai Composite regains composure to end session in po

Today 05:54am EST/09:54am GMT

European Market Update: ZEW officials play down better-than-expected economic sentiment data; Equities correcting this session as Shanghai Composite regains composure to end session in positive territory

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (JP) Japan Jul Tokyo Dept. Store Sales Y/Y: -13.4% v -11.4% prior; Nationwide Dept. Sales Y/Y: -11.7% v -8.8% prior

- (SP) Spain Jun Services Sector Sales Y/Y: -14.1% v -19.3% prior; Services Sector Employment Y/Y: -6.7% v -6.7% prior

- (SP) Spain May bad loan ratio at 4.7% v 1.7% year-ago - Central Bank

- (SW) Swedish Q2 Industry Capacity 77.0% v 78.8% prior; Total Number of Employees Y/Y: -1.9% v -0.8% prior

- (HK) Hong Kong Unemployment Rate SA: 5.4% v 5.5%e

- (UK) Jul CPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.5%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.5%e

- (UK) Jul Retail Price Index 213.4 v 213.1e

- (UK) Jul RPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.7%e; RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.0%e

- (GE) German Aug ZEW Survey Econ. Sentiment: 56.1v 45.0e; Current Situation: -77.2 v -85.0e

- (EU) Euro-zone Aug ZEW Econ. Sentiment: 54.9 v 45.0e

- (SA) South Africa Q2 GDP Annualized: -3.0% v -3.3%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.8%e



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- Equities in
Europe opened to a soft tone following rebound gains in Asian equities after Monday's inter-month lows. Asian markets, specifically in China, posted a strong late-day recovery that recouped trading session losses. This tone set the direction of initial European trading with bourses opening positive and quickly pushing to their trading range highs. Positive trending stocks included European steel names following a sector initiation out of Nomura at buy and HSBC [HSBA.UK] after Goldman Sachs raised the firm to buy. Other positive movers included Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] after confirmation of a unit sale and Vestas Wind System [VWS.DC] after earnings. In sector performance, utilities and basic materials have outperformed while consumer goods and health care have lagged their peers. From the open, ex some trading spikes, European bourses have trended off their best levels. Past 5:00amEST, equities took a sharp upward bounce following the release of strong German and Euro Zone August ZEW survey figures. This tone did not last, however, and gains were quickly paired placing markets into their trading range. Volumes have come in significantly below their averages across the board representing low commitment in this post earnings summer period.


- In individual equities:
British Land [BLND.UK] reported Q1 Pretax £63M v Profit £62Me, declares quarterly dividend of 6.5p/shr. NAV 361p/shr (-9% q/q). Vestas [VWS.DC] reported Q2 Net €43M v €77Me, revenue €1.2B v €1.3Be; Maintains FY outlook. Shipped wind power systems 1,172 MW (618 turbines) v 1,458 MW (705 turbines) y/y. Continental [CON.GE] Shaeffler group states that bank consortium has awarded €12B mid-term refinance plan. Finance plan allows for potential merger of group with Continental. Carillion [CLLN.UK] JV awarded contract around £500M for construction of Durham Building. 3i [III.UK] In talks to sell European investment portfolio, according to the FT. Amcor confirmed its $2.03B bid for Rio Tinto's [RIO.UK] Alcan packaging unit. Aeroports de Paris [ADP.FR] reported July Traffic -3.1%. Solon [SOO1.GE] reported H1 revenue €119.4M v €123Me. Continues to state that accurate FY09 forecasts are impossible. RWE [RWE.GE] Confirms selected by Polish Treasury for exclusive negotiations to acquire 67% stake in state-owned utility ENEA. Schindler [SCHN.SZ] reported Q2 Net CHF164M v CHF156Me, revenue CHF2.97M v CHF2.9Be. Orders received CHF3.06B v CHF3.75B y/y.


- In speakers: S&P affirmed
China's sovereign ratings at A+, outlook stable. S&P stated that China outlook reflected a strong fiscal position and reserves and that the country's strengths outweighed its contingent liabilities in its banking system. S&P added that China's rating was supported by its growth potential and its modest Govt debt. S&P noted that it could raise the sovereign ratings if financial institutions reformed. However, S&P hinted that it could be downward pressures on China's sovereign if the banking reforms lagged or if metrics worsened. Also additional economic weakness could impact view. German ZEW Economists commented that positive growth in German Q2 GDP had led to stronger assessment of conditions. The ZEW economists noted that there was no reason for euphoria as German economy was likely to only recover gradually and parallel the world economic activity. German ZEW's Franz reiterated the view that he saw no reason for "euphoria" following the better German data. He stated that the German economy would only recover gradually . He did add that the Q2 developments justified previous financial market expectations German DIHK forecasts 2010 exports to rise by 4% after declining by 17% this year. Imports were seen 4% higher in 2010 after declining 14 % in 2009. DIHK sees 2010 German trade surplus at €116B compared to €112B in 2009 India Mines Min commented that the Indian Gov't would not change minerals royalty structure. He added that he saw the share of mine sector to GDP rising to 5% within five years from the current level 2.8%.


- In currencies: price action in the dollar and yen has found itself dependent on the direction of the Chinese equities market. The Shanghai Composite recovered from its pre-lunch lows to end the session in positive territory. EUR/USD managed to hold the 1.4050 level on Monday, where renewed chatter of Asian sovereign bids lurked, to move towards 1.4150 in today's session.
Sterling was firmer against major pairs, aided by the July UK CPI data release, which came in above expectations, with the y/y rate at +1.8% versus a 1.5% consensus. GBP/USD jumped from 1.6410 area to test 1.6450 before consolidating its gains. EUR/USD tested the 1.4155 level following the better ZEW economic sentiment which surged to 56.1 from 39.5 prior, its highest reading in three years. However, the euro consolidated its gains as ZEW officials played down the euphoria over the data. Looking ahead, the USD and JPY price action looks to remain highly correlated with the direction of equities.


- In fixed income: some weakness has crept back into government bonds this morning in
Europe, with a reversal in the fortunes of equities and stronger than expected economic data both contributing to the decline. Gilts have under-performed on a relative basis following stronger then expected CPI, with the short end of the Gilt curve under most pressure. The yield on the 2y Gilt is approaching 0.96% having tested all time lows below 0.86% in yesterday's session. Bunds are not far behind though, after ZEW surveys for August beat market estimates, but whilst the UK yield exhibits a flattening bias in Germany its bear a steepening story, with the yield on the 10y Bund oscillating around 3.30%. Ireland sold €1B in 2014 and 2018 bonds with encouraging results. Treasuries are weaker across the curve in overnight trade, with the yield on the 10y Note about 2.5bps higher at 3.492% in current trade.


- In Energy:
Iran ready for unconditional nuclear talks according to a speech given by Iranian envoy Ali Asghar Soltanieh of the International Atomic Energy Agency Hurricane Bill remains a Category 2 storm, but to miss Gulf region.



***Looking Ahead*** US- Housing Starts/Permits, US PPI data.

- (SP) Spain Jun Trade Balance: No estimates versus -€3.3B prior

- (RU) Russian Jul Unemployment Rate: 8.3e% v 8.3%prior

- (RU) Russian Jul Retail Sales (Real) M/M: No estimate v 0.2% prior, Y/Y: -7.1%e v -6.5 % prior

- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: -0.61% e v -0.35% prior

- 7:45 (US) ICSC Chain Store sales

- 8:00 (PD) Polish Jul Avg Gross Wages M/M: 0.4%e v 2.9% prior, Y/Y: 2.0% e v 2.0% prior

- 8:00 (PD) Polish Jul Employment M/M: -0.3% e v -0.2% prior, Y/Y: -2.2%e v -1.9% prior

- 8:30 (US) Producer Price Index M/M: -0.3% e v 1.8% prior, Y/Y: -5.9%e v -4.6% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Jun Int'l Securities Transactions: C$2.00Be v C$18.89B prior

- 8:30 (US) Jul PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior, Y/Y: 2.8%e v 3.3% prior

- 8:30 (US) Jul Housing Starts 598K e v 582K prior

- 8:30 (US) Jul Building Permits 576K e v 563K prior

- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook retail sales

- 12:00 (TU) Turkish Central Bank Base Rate decision. Consensus expectation is for a 50bps cut to 7.75% from the current rate of 8.25%

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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