Forex Blog - European Market Update: ZEW officials play down better-than-expected economic sentiment data; Equities correcting this session as Shanghai Composite regains composure to end session in po
European Market Update: ZEW officials play down better-than-expected economic sentiment data; Equities correcting this session as Shanghai Composite regains composure to end session in positive territory
*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (JP) Japan Jul Tokyo Dept. Store Sales Y/Y: -13.4% v -11.4% prior; Nationwide Dept. Sales Y/Y: -11.7% v -8.8% prior
- (SP) Spain Jun Services Sector Sales Y/Y: -14.1% v -19.3% prior; Services Sector Employment Y/Y: -6.7% v -6.7% prior
- (SP) Spain May bad loan ratio at 4.7% v 1.7% year-ago - Central Bank
- (SW) Swedish Q2 Industry Capacity 77.0% v 78.8% prior; Total Number of Employees Y/Y: -1.9% v -0.8% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Unemployment Rate SA: 5.4% v 5.5%e
- (UK) Jul CPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.5%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.5%e
- (UK) Jul Retail Price Index 213.4 v 213.1e
- (UK) Jul RPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.7%e; RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.0%e
- (GE) German Aug ZEW Survey Econ. Sentiment: 56.1v 45.0e; Current Situation: -77.2 v -85.0e
- (EU) Euro-zone Aug ZEW Econ. Sentiment: 54.9 v 45.0e
- (SA) South Africa Q2 GDP Annualized: -3.0% v -3.3%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.8%e
- Equities in Europe opened to a soft tone following rebound gains in Asian equities after Monday's inter-month lows. Asian markets, specifically in China, posted a strong late-day recovery that recouped trading session losses. This tone set the direction of initial European trading with bourses opening positive and quickly pushing to their trading range highs. Positive trending stocks included European steel names following a sector initiation out of Nomura at buy and HSBC [HSBA.UK] after Goldman Sachs raised the firm to buy. Other positive movers included Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] after confirmation of a unit sale and Vestas Wind System [VWS.DC] after earnings. In sector performance, utilities and basic materials have outperformed while consumer goods and health care have lagged their peers. From the open, ex some trading spikes, European bourses have trended off their best levels. Past 5:00amEST, equities took a sharp upward bounce following the release of strong German and Euro Zone August ZEW survey figures. This tone did not last, however, and gains were quickly paired placing markets into their trading range. Volumes have come in significantly below their averages across the board representing low commitment in this post earnings summer period.
- In individual equities: BritishLand [BLND.UK] reported Q1 Pretax Â£63M v Profit Â£62Me, declares quarterly dividend of 6.5p/shr. NAV 361p/shr (-9% q/q). Vestas [VWS.DC] reported Q2 Net â‚¬43M v â‚¬77Me, revenue â‚¬1.2B v â‚¬1.3Be; Maintains FY outlook. Shipped wind power systems 1,172 MW (618 turbines) v 1,458 MW (705 turbines) y/y. Continental [CON.GE] Shaeffler group states that bank consortium has awarded â‚¬12B mid-term refinance plan. Finance plan allows for potential merger of group with Continental. Carillion [CLLN.UK] JV awarded contract around Â£500M for construction of DurhamBuilding. 3i [III.UK] In talks to sell European investment portfolio, according to the FT. Amcor confirmed its $2.03B bid for Rio Tinto's [RIO.UK] Alcan packaging unit. Aeroports de Paris [ADP.FR] reported July Traffic -3.1%. Solon [SOO1.GE] reported H1 revenue â‚¬119.4M v â‚¬123Me. Continues to state that accurate FY09 forecasts are impossible. RWE [RWE.GE] Confirms selected by Polish Treasury for exclusive negotiations to acquire 67% stake in state-owned utility ENEA. Schindler [SCHN.SZ] reported Q2 Net CHF164M v CHF156Me, revenue CHF2.97M v CHF2.9Be. Orders received CHF3.06B v CHF3.75B y/y.
- In speakers: S&P affirmed China's sovereign ratings at A+, outlook stable. S&P stated that China outlook reflected a strong fiscal position and reserves and that the country's strengths outweighed its contingent liabilities in its banking system. S&P added that China's rating was supported by its growth potential and its modest Govt debt. S&P noted that it could raise the sovereign ratings if financial institutions reformed. However, S&P hinted that it could be downward pressures on China's sovereign if the banking reforms lagged or if metrics worsened. Also additional economic weakness could impact view. German ZEW Economists commented that positive growth in German Q2 GDP had led to stronger assessment of conditions. The ZEW economists noted that there was no reason for euphoria as German economy was likely to only recover gradually and parallel the world economic activity. German ZEW's Franz reiterated the view that he saw no reason for "euphoria" following the better German data. He stated that the German economy would only recover gradually . He did add that the Q2 developments justified previous financial market expectations German DIHK forecasts 2010 exports to rise by 4% after declining by 17% this year. Imports were seen 4% higher in 2010 after declining 14 % in 2009. DIHK sees 2010 German trade surplus at â‚¬116B compared to â‚¬112B in 2009 India Mines Min commented that the Indian Gov't would not change minerals royalty structure. He added that he saw the share of mine sector to GDP rising to 5% within five years from the current level 2.8%.
- In currencies: price action in the dollar and yen has found itself dependent on the direction of the Chinese equities market. The Shanghai Composite recovered from its pre-lunch lows to end the session in positive territory. EUR/USD managed to hold the 1.4050 level on Monday, where renewed chatter of Asian sovereign bids lurked, to move towards 1.4150 in today's session. Sterling was firmer against major pairs, aided by the July UK CPI data release, which came in above expectations, with the y/y rate at +1.8% versus a 1.5% consensus. GBP/USD jumped from 1.6410 area to test 1.6450 before consolidating its gains. EUR/USD tested the 1.4155 level following the better ZEW economic sentiment which surged to 56.1 from 39.5 prior, its highest reading in three years. However, the euro consolidated its gains as ZEW officials played down the euphoria over the data. Looking ahead, the USD and JPY price action looks to remain highly correlated with the direction of equities.
- In fixed income: some weakness has crept back into government bonds this morning in Europe, with a reversal in the fortunes of equities and stronger than expected economic data both contributing to the decline. Gilts have under-performed on a relative basis following stronger then expected CPI, with the short end of the Gilt curve under most pressure. The yield on the 2y Gilt is approaching 0.96% having tested all time lows below 0.86% in yesterday's session. Bunds are not far behind though, after ZEW surveys for August beat market estimates, but whilst the UK yield exhibits a flattening bias in Germany its bear a steepening story, with the yield on the 10y Bund oscillating around 3.30%. Ireland sold â‚¬1B in 2014 and 2018 bonds with encouraging results. Treasuries are weaker across the curve in overnight trade, with the yield on the 10y Note about 2.5bps higher at 3.492% in current trade.
- In Energy: Iran ready for unconditional nuclear talks according to a speech given by Iranian envoy Ali Asghar Soltanieh of the International Atomic Energy Agency Hurricane Bill remains a Category 2 storm, but to miss Gulf region.
***Looking Ahead*** US- Housing Starts/Permits, US PPI data.
- (SP) Spain Jun Trade Balance: No estimates versus -â‚¬3.3B prior
- (RU) Russian Jul Unemployment Rate: 8.3e% v 8.3%prior
- (RU) Russian Jul Retail Sales (Real) M/M: No estimate v 0.2% prior, Y/Y: -7.1%e v -6.5 % prior
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: -0.61% e v -0.35% prior
- 7:45 (US) ICSC Chain Store sales
- 8:00 (PD) Polish Jul Avg Gross Wages M/M: 0.4%e v 2.9% prior, Y/Y: 2.0% e v 2.0% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Polish Jul Employment M/M: -0.3% e v -0.2% prior, Y/Y: -2.2%e v -1.9% prior
- 8:30 (US) Producer Price Index M/M: -0.3% e v 1.8% prior, Y/Y: -5.9%e v -4.6% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Jun Int'l Securities Transactions: C$2.00Be v C$18.89B prior
- 8:30 (US) Jul PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior, Y/Y: 2.8%e v 3.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jul Housing Starts 598K e v 582K prior
- 8:30 (US) Jul Building Permits 576K e v 563K prior
- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook retail sales
- 12:00 (TU) Turkish Central Bank Base Rate decision. Consensus expectation is for a 50bps cut to 7.75% from the current rate of 8.25%
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.