Wednesday February 2, 2005 - 10:27:46 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 2/2/05
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $46.9evel, a dollar lower than its previous close, but while above $46, its outlook is bullish. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broker again above 10.500 level, closing around 10.550.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3075 level. The market is waiting for the FOMC rate decision, today at 7:15 PM GMT. Consensus (but not a wide consensus) is on a rate hike of 25bp, leaving rates at 2.50%. I would be very surprised if we see any important moves before that announcement takes place. I would rather say that given the current rangebound trading, a surprise in the announcement could well mark the next move in the currency markets. It has to be said that FOMC decisions have not moved the market as they used to in past times. Iím not saying it is not a market-mover, which would not be true, but Iím just saying that it used to shake markets much more 1-2 years ago. In the case of intraday trading, however, it is quite advisable to stay out of trading today until the data is released, makes trading stressless. Daily picture remains unchanged from previous days on a technical basis.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2543. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter moving averages for some time now, with the 20-day crossing down the 50-day.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Neutral. Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8845 level. The pair still trades between the 20 and the 50-day moving averages, sideways for now, but an eye must be kept on the fact that a strong moev on the upside would change its picture dramatically. However, while capped below the 50-day moving average and the current short-term trendline, its outlook is negative.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8391. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now. Pair is above the 20-day, and it is currently trading between them.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Neutral. Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency for some time now.
Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1875 level. It looks quite discouraging to the USD bulls. The USD is unable to break above, yet again after another failed attempt, the 50% fibo level around 1.1960. That level proves to hold the key of the next move once and again. Pair still trades above its moving averages, but a break is right now needed to prove the USD on a strong uptrend.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2253. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago. Pair is trading above them both.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral.
Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6935 level. After breaking the uptrend channel to the downside, the pair is clearly unable to move back up and regain it, and moving aveages just started the bearish cross. To prove the current low of around 0.69 a support for the resume of the uptrend, channel must be regained and the pair should break above moving averages. If not, 200-day moving average magnet could play its role effectively.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6816 today. The pair is below both its 50-day moving average and its 20-day one, and they have jus started the bearish cross.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
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