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Tuesday August 25, 2009 - 10:05:51 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European markets again shake off Chinese cautious economic comments

Today 05:59am EST/09:59am GMT

European Market Update: European markets again shake off Chinese cautious economic comments



- (GE) German Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: -5.9% v -5.9%e; NSA Y/Y: -7.1% v -7.1%e

- (GE) German Q2 Final Private Consumption: 0.7% v 0.3%e; -Capital Investment: 0.85% v -2.5%e; Construction Investment: 1.4% v 2.0%e; Domestic Demand: -1.3% v -0.7%e ; Imports: -5.1% v -4.0%e; Exports: -1.2% v -1.3%e

- (GE) German Jun Real Construction Orders (Seasonal adj) M/M: -2.1%v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -6.0%

- (FI) Finland Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 8.2%e

- (SZ) Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator: 0.766 v 0.950 prior

- (HU) Hungarian Jun Retail Trade Y/Y: -2.2% v-4.3%e

- (CZ) Czech Aug Business Confidence: -8.7 v -7.5 prior; Consumer Confidence: -18.3 v -19.0 prior; Consumer & Business Confidence: -10.6 v -9.8 prior

- (SP) Spanish Jul Producer Prices M.M: -0.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -6.7% v -6.0%e

- (SZ) Swiss Q2 Final Employment Level: 3.95M v 3.96Me; Employment Level Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.1%e

- (PD) Polish July Retail Sales M/M: 6.9% v 2.2%e; Y/Y: 5.7% v 1.4%e

- (PD) Polish July Unemployment Rate: 10.8% v 10.8%e

- (HK) Hong Kong Jul Trade Balance (HKD): -21.7B v -13.4Be; Exports Y/Y: -19.9% v -12.%e; Imports Y/Y: -17.8% v -15.0%e

- (UK) Jul BBA Loans for House Purchase: 38.2K v 37.8Ke ; highest level since Feb 2008


- In equities news overnight: European equity markets came off yesterday's highs by opening to the downside. Asian trading also had a downside bias as market rumors regarding the potential need for a capital raise out of China Construction Bank [939.HK] (which were later denied by bank) and below expectation earnings out of Chinalco [2600.HK] initiated broad risk aversion. Pre-market earnings out of
Europe included international builder CRH international [CRH.IR], UK home builder Persimmon [PSN.UK] and German value carrier Air Berlin [AB1.GE]. Analysts at JPMorgan updated their calls on European sectors by cutting Minerals and Metals (to neutral) and raising Telecom (to buy). This action, along with the sector trade out of Asian bourses applied heavy pressure to miners and heavy industrial names on the open. This initial downside trade was slowly shaken off through the European morning, however, as markets slowly came off opening lows. Mixed data flows; including positive Polish retail sales, UK mortgage loan data and Czech consumer confidence supported the slow uptrend. Recovery in US equity futures led European bourses higher through the morning as concerns out of Asia waned and media sources played up the roll of a reinstated Chairman of the Fed Ben Bernake. Market turnover remains below average by approx 10% across the board in relatively muted trading. Markets already have begun to prepare themselves for US data including June home price index and consumer confidence numbers expected in the NY pre-market.

-In individual equities: CRH International [CRH] Reports H1 Pretax £108Mv £132Me, Rev €8.2B v €8.3Be, interim dividend 18.50p/shr v 18.48/shr y/y. Net debt at 30th June of €5.12B (June 2008: €6.56B). H1 profits for Europe Materials fell sharply compared with the very strong 2008 first-half outturn. H1 Demand in
Ireland for the six months to 30th June 2009 was approximately half last year's levels. || Persimmon [PSN.UK] Reports H1 Pretax loss £18M v loss £19Me,Rev £612M v £625Me. Completed 4,006 units (H1 2008: 5,501) at an average selling price of £155,524 (H1 2008: £181,485). || Lindt & Spruengli [LISN.SZ] Reports H1 Net CHF2.7M v CHF400Ke, Rev CHF979M v CHF1.1Be. Continues to see organic growth at 2-5% y/y; trading in line with views. Reiterates FY09 EBIT at CHF260-280M v CHF305Me. States that rises in input costs can not be fully compensated and will affect figures. || Punch Taverns [PUB.UK] Provides interim statement: Trading remains challenging, On track to meet FY expectations. Trading results to date continue to reflect the challenging market conditions being faced across the sector. || Continental [CON.GE] Schaffler's creditor banks and Continental are expected to meet on Friday - FT Deutschland. The goal of the talks will be to facilitate the way for a merger. || Natixis [KN.FR] Parent bank BPCE to guarantee losses at bank, not French gov -Les Echos. Speculation has been that bank would be forced to ask the French gov for further guarantees on CDO's and RMBS derivative products. Bank has already received €7B in state support. || RBS [RBS.UK] Talks regarding the sale of commercial and retail businesses in China and India to Standard Chartered have hit snags - WSJ. The problems could mean that RBS will receive a smaller price for the units. || Venture Production [VPC.UK] Board may reverse decision and recommend remaining holders sell share to Centrica -FT. As of Aug 24, Centrica announced that it has taken its stake above the 50% mark. ||

- Speakers: ECB's Trichet reiterated his weekend comments at the Fed symposium in WY that Monetary policy did not necessarily need to be activist and the ECB would quickly seek to unwind stimulus when economic outlook improved || ECB's Mersch commented that he still expects rising loan loss provisions in H2; only global demand can sustain Euro-zone recovery. The ECB member noted that smaller banks to be more affected than larger banks. Current growth dependant on state support || Chinese State Council: Economic recovery remains fragile; Stabilizing exports remains a major task || ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo reiterated the standard ECB view that it must keep mid-term inflation expectations anchored and that the current interest rates of 1.0% are adequate for Euro-Zone. He noted that Q2 GDP out of
France and Germany (both +0.3) were good signs. Further fiscal reform was needed in Euro-zone countries to exit the current crisis and mentioned that Spain labor reform was necessary to avoid further job losses ||South Korean Central Bank minutes showed that the members voted unanimously to keep rates on hold at 2.00% at its July 9th policy meeting. Members noted that the markets were showing more signs of stability and that the Korean economy was recovering from downturn. Members did note that the central bank should monitor mortgages and asset prices || Chinese Gov Researcher commented that the Chinese export level to show a positive y/y growth figure by November (***Insight: Chinese Exports (and imports) have registered nine consecutive negative MoM readings since Oct 2008.) || SNB's Hildebrand commented that derivative markets needed more infrastructure and more rapid reactions were needed for when markets failed. || International Cocoa Organization (ICCO): 2008/09 Cocoa deficit seen at 73K tons ||

- In Currencies: JPY was firmer ahead of the European morning on rising risk aversion sentiment propelled by a sagging Chinese equity market. USD/JPY tested 93.80 while EUR/USD probed the mid-1.42 neighborhood. The Shanghai Composite slumped over 5.5% before recovering. The soft tone in Chinese equities was attributed to rumors circulating that banks might have to raise capital. USD/JPY dipped to test 93.80 area before consolidating. China Construction Bank [939.HK] reiterated its view that it did not need to raise funds and the comments brought a bout of relief and consolidation to the price action seen in late
Asia. The USD and JPY pared their best levels as a result of the comments from China Construction Bank. The USD and JPY gave up most of their gains against most pairs as the NY morning approached. EUR/USD was back above 1.43 in conjunction with European equity markets probing positive territory.

- In Fixed Income: Government bonds opened well bid following yesterday's Treasury rally, and the yield on the 2y Gilt hit another all time low under 0.83% in early trade. Prices are well off their best levels as equities stage a recovery, but the yield 10y Gilt has managed to stay below 3.60%, with the yield on the 10y Bund sitting just below 3.30%. Treasuries have underperformed, moving into negative territory across the term structure ahead of the first leg of this weeks supply . New 2y notes are yielding 1.08% in the when issued market, a concession of about 6bps to the existing issue leading into the auction. Three month Euribor fixed steady at 0.84%. It has been a good morning for corporate issuance, with a €2B 5y offering from Daimler reportedly subscribed 4 times over, and a 30y benchmark offering from Citgroup also on the way.

- In Energy: Iraq Oil Min commented all second round auctions results would lead to JV's in which the Iraqi state will hold a 25% stake in operation || Venezuela's Finance Min Rodriguez commented that OPEC to maintain output cuts until economy in recovery .To reduce the gap between official and parallel currency rate.

*** NOTES ***

- Obama to reappoint Bernanke as Fed Chief

- China State Council stated that economic recovery was solid, and that equity market weakness was overreaction to PBoC fine tuning comments earlier this month.

- Shanghai Composite close lower by 2.6% on rumors that Chinese banks need capital. China Construction Bank denied such chatter regarding

- Japanese election Sunday. LDP widely seen losing control of the lower house.

- Summer doldrums might be restraining participation but doesn't exempt wild price movements

***Looking Ahead***

- 9:00 (US) Jun S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index: No expectations v 139.84 prior, Composite 20 Y/Y:16.4%e v -17.06% prior

- 9:00 (US) Q2 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI: No expectations v v 128.8 prior, Y/Y -19.8% e v -19.1% prior

- 9:00 (BE) Belgian Aug Business Confidence Level: -20e v -22.8 prior

- 10:00 (US) Aug Consumer Confidence: 47.9e v 46.6 prior

- 10:00 (MX) Current Account Balance: $684Me v -$1075M prior

- 10:00 (US) Aug Richmond Fed Manufact. Index: 16e v 14 prior

- 10:00 (
US) Jun House Price Index M/M 0.4% e v 0.9% prior

- 10:00 (
US) Q2 House Price Purchase Index Q/Q: -0.4%e v -0.6% prior

- 10:00 (
UK) BoE 2034 - 2055 Gilt reverse Auction

12:45 (UK) BoE's Bean

- 13:00 (
US) Treasury's $42B 2y Note auction


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