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Tuesday August 25, 2009 - 12:49:51 GMT
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Bernanke Reappointment Non-Event; Traders to Focus on Consumer Confidence

Today President Obama is expected to reappoint Fed Chairman Bernanke to another term.  This news did not come as surprise to the markets especially after Bernanke’s upbeat speech late last week regarding the economic recovery in the U.S.  Traders also figured that he would stay on board especially since there is still a long road to recovery before the Fed begins to raise interest rates.  With so many Fed actions yet to be unwound before the U.S. fully recovers from the worst recession in decades, it didn’t make sense to hand the job over to anyone else.

 

Yesterday the September E-mini S&P 500 posted a closing price reversal top.  This wasn’t a big event, but this signal has been know to trigger the start of substantial corrections.  In this case because the market has been so bullish lately, expect only a 2 to 3 day break.  A follow-through break through yesterday’s low will confirm the reversal top at 1035.00.  If this break attracts sellers then look for a break to at least 1005.25 to 998.25 over the short-term.  A new high negates the signal.

 

The same pattern developed in the September E-mini NASDAQ.  Based on the short-term range of 1561.25 to 1648.00, look for a potential break to 1604.75 to 1594.50 over the short-run if this reversal top is confirmed today.  A trade through 1648.00 will negate the signal.

 

The September E-mini Dow closed up, thereby creating a minor divergence between the Dow and the NASDAQ and S&P 500.  This minor divergence could develop into something major if the two closing price reversal tops are confirmed.

 

Treasury bond and note traders will have to deal with the start of the current Treasury auction.  Today the Treasury begins a $42 billion 2-year note auction.  Expectations are for this auction to be well received.  A sharp break in the equity markets could send money into the Treasuries.

 

The Euro is getting is support from the possibility of an earlier than estimated recovery.  This is based on better than expected GDP figures from France and Germany.  In addition, manufacturing showed improvement in France while the services sector improved in the Euro Zone. 

 

The British Pound is feeling pressure because of the huge budget deficit and the Bank of England’s expansion of its quantitative easing program.

 

The Canadian Dollar originally saw selling pressure because of a jump in unemployment, but has recently found support because of an unexpected increase in retail sales.

 

December Gold is in a down trend and taking its direction from the Dollar.  Without inflation to worry about, this market could drift sideways to lower.  December Silver is in a downtrend also.  If China curbs liquidity then look for a sell-off to begin in December Copper as this would signal the end to demand for commodities.

 

December Crude Oil will take its direction from the equity markets and the Euro today.  Weaker equity markets and a stronger Dollar could put downside pressure on this market.  Traders have held this market in a range since last week’s unexpected drop in inventories.  Traders may be waiting for tomorrow’s inventory report to confirm that there is a trend developing.

 

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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