Wednesday August 26, 2009 - 03:38:03 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 26-Aug-2009 - 0335 GMT
Dow (9539.29) and Nasdaq (2024.23) gained 0.32% each on a choppy trading day. The consumer confidence rebound and housing prices index rose 0.5% m-o-m. Every rise towards the Resistance has been sold sharply which confirms that there is lingering caution among investors. Technically, the Trendline near 9650 on Dow has been providing strong Resistance to the index, and till this holds, there could be good chances of a corrective dip towards 9400 over the next couple of days. To see the chart of Dow, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/djiacandle.shtml#candle
The Asian indices are trading mixed today, mostly higher. Nikkei and Shanghai are up 0.64% each after a choppy day yesterday. Yesterday, Shanghai (2934.08) had fallen sharply yesterday and tested the Support near 2800 only to recover later as it closed comfortably above the Support near 2800. At a point, Shanghai was trading 5.7% lower yesterday.
The Sensex (15688.47) had however been comparatively more resilient to China's sharp intra-day fall yesterday and it ended the day higher by 0.4%. We continue to mention the range for Sensex is between 14300-16100 over the next several days. Nifty (4659.35) has Resistance near 4750 and Sensex near 16100.
Crude (71.90) fell sharply breaking below the Support at 72.50 and is now trading lower. If it continues to trade lower we might see it moving down towards 70.50-00 where some Support is seen. A futher move below 70 might test the Support at 69. On the upside a break above 72.50 once again might test the Resistance at 75. To see the Crude chart click on the following link:
Gold (947.50) is trading below 950 and we may expect it to continue to trade in the range 930-960 in which it has been trading for the last two weeks.
Dollar-Yen (94.08) has come off from yesterday's high of 94.62 and might test the Support at 93.50 today. The Euro (1.4303) is looking mixed and might trade in the range of 1.4200-4400 for some time. Euro-Yen (134.58) might test the Support at 133.50 and might trade in the range of 133.50-136.00 today.
The Pound (1.6321) has fallen from 1.6444 yesterday and might test the Significant Support region 1.6270-50 before a rise once again towards 1.6400-50. Swiss (1.0619) might rise towards 1.0680-0700 today. Aussie might trade in the range 0.8300-0.8450 today.
Dollar-Won is trading sideways near 1248. Dollar-Rupee one week NDF is trading at 48.72/77 and one month at 48.95/49.05
3M USD LIBOR was set 1 bp lower yesterday at 0.38%. The yields on US Treasuries fell between 2-4 bps for maturities over 2Y. The 10Y benchmark yields were quoting at 3.45%. The TED Spreads have narrowed 1 bp and is at 22 bps. With LIBOR having dipped sharply over the last couple of months, there could be increased chances of Fed increasing rates in their meeting scheduled in the third week of next month.
08:00 GMT Aug GER IFO Business Expectations
08:00 GMT Aug GER IFO Business Situations
08:00 GMT Aug GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 89.1...Previous 87.3
12:30 GMT July US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected 3.3%...Previous -2.5%
14:00 GMT June US New Home Sales
...Expected 393K...Previous 384K
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