User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday August 26, 2009 - 10:13:35 GMT
Trade the News Staff - www.global-view.com/forex-services/TTN/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Blog - European Market Update: IFO data shows German economy is on the mend, but officials remain cautious on sustainability

Today 05:50am EST/09:50am GMT

European Market Update: IFO data shows German economy is on the mend, but officials remain cautious on sustainability

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (TH) Thailand Central Bank leaves its Benchmark Interest Rate at 1.25%; as expected.

- (GE) German July Import Price Index M/M: -0.9 v -0.8%e; Y/Y: -12.6% v -12.5%e

- (SW) Swedish Aug Manufacturing Confidence: -20 v -15e; Consumer Confidence: +3.1 v -0.4e; Economic Tendency Survey: 88.7 v 91.0e

- (SP) Spain Jun Mortgages on Houses Y/Y: -10.8% v -22.6% prior; Mortgages-capital loaned Y/Y: -16.1% v -25.8% prior

- (SW) Swedish July Trade Balance (SEK): 6.4B v 7.9Be

- (NO) Norwegian Jun Unemployment Rate (AKU): 3.0% v 3.2%e

- (GE) German IFO - Business Climate: 90.5 v 89e; Current Assessment: 86.1 v 86.0e; IFO - Expectations: 95.0 v 92.0e

- (SA) South Africa CPI (all items) M/M: 1.1% v 1.0%; Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.6%e



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities news overnight: European bourses opened to the downside pairing gains printed in the second half of yesterday's trading session. European markets, which had been broadly negative, rallied sharply on the back of US consumer confidence figures to print new 2009 calendar year highs. Pre-market trading was to the downside following these gains and mixed earnings reports from European firms. Today's earnings included French commercial bank Natixis [KN.FR], utility firm Suez Environment [SEV.FR], the brewer Heineken [HEIA.NV], insurance firm Swiss Life [SLHN.SZ], miner Antofagasta [ANTO.UK], advertising firm WPP [WPP.UK] and energy firms Tullow Oil [TLW.UK] and John Wood Group [WG.UK]. Following their opening lows, equities trended higher following support form earnings names, financials and some discretionary sectors ahead of the German August IFO business climate read at 4:00EST. Speculation that the number would come in ahead of estimates, along with the strong read out of
Belgium on Tuesday pushed equities to their highs right before the release. German August IFO figures did not disappoint, reading ahead of the expectation but cautious commentary, including the statement that businesses saw continuing conditions worse now, than in the year ago period led to a rapid drop off. This down movement, led by the DAX pushed European equities back below the unchanged mark, a level they have maintained since. On the back of earnings and economic data, turnover levels in today's trading have come in broadly ahead of their moving averages with the CAC outperforming on strong trading in shares of Alcatel-Lucent [ALU.FR].


-In individual equities: Natixis [KN.FR] Reports Q2 Net Loss €883M (inc items) v Loss €801Me, announced strategic review. BPCE to guarantee approximately €35B of segregated assets. || Suez Environment [SEV.FR] Reports H1 Net €175M v €145Me, Rev €5.9B v €5.9Be; lowers EBITDA guidance. Sees new 2000 EBITDA at stable y/y vs previous target of low single-digit growth. || Swiss Life [SLHN.SZ] Reports H1 Net CHF172M v CHF139Me; Gross Written Premiums CHF10.4B v CHF10.6Be. Solvency ratio 155%. Seeking to cut operational costs by CHF400M. Swiss sales CHF4.6B -2% y/y. France sales CHF2.5B -7% y/y. Germany sales CHF971M +14% y/y. || Antofagasta [ANTO.UK] Reports H1 Net $236M v $193Me, Rev $1.2B v $1.2Be dividend of 3.4p/shr. Group copper production 218.2k tons v 2336.k y/y. || WPP Group [WPP.UK] Reports H1 Net £108M v £179Me, Rev £4.3B v £4.3Be. || John Wood [WG.UK] Reports H1 Net $107M v $108Me, Rev $2.4B v $2.4Be. || Tullow [TLW.UK] Reports H1 Pretax £34.8M v €34Me, Rev £291M v £289Me. H1 realized oil price bbl $53 v $80.1 y/y. || Heineken [HEIA.NV] Reports H1 Net profit €483M v €446Me, Op profit €993M v €927Me, Rev €7.15B v €6.9Be. H1 consolidated beer volumes -6.6% on like for like basis. || ING [INGA.NV] Reportedly, Co seeks $1.8B for final bids for private banking operations. || Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Reports Q1 Net RUB104B v RUB85Be, Rev RUB931B v RUB912Be. ||


- Speakers: ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo commented that banks must not be overly prudent and lend to the real economy. He noted that the full crisis was not yet over || IFO's Abberger stated one could not conclude that the economic recovery was sustainable at this time. He expected significant rise in jobless rate in latter part of 2009 and into 2010, but did not expect German unemployment to exceed 5M. IFO believes that difficulties easing in all areas of economy. The current levels in EUR exchange rate not posing problems for exporters || IFO's Nerb commented that the ECB should maintain interest rates at a low level and that it was too early for any rate hikes. Nerb also noted that it was too early to discuss exit strategy from government measures. Thus he believes that there should be no ECB interest rate hike until Mid 2010 || Sweden Think Tank NEIR revised its GDP view upward with 2009 GDP seen contracting by 5.0% compared to its prior forecast of a 5.4% contraction made back in June. Its 2010 GDP view now at +1..5% compared with its prior +0.8% June forecast. ||
China's Q3 industrial output to rise by approximately 11.5% - Ministry with 2009 output up in a range of 11 to 12 percent.


- In Currencies: The German IFO data exceeded expectations but cautious comments by IFO members weighed upon the initial euphoria. EUR/USD tested the 1.4350 area immediately after the IFO data but encountered some steady selling. For the most part the USD was maintaining its familiar levels against most pairs. The GBP maintained a heavy tone against the major pairs in continued selling associated with recent dovish BoE policy stance and high level of government and consumer indebtedness. Overall dealers speculating that the
UK recovery will lag the Euro and US regions. noting that GBP/USD dipped below the 1.63 handle while GBP/JPY tested its 100-day mvg avg at 153.33 area.


- In Fixed Income: Corporate debt markets have been subject to a deluge of bank issuance this morning. Deutsche Bank launched its €3B tier 1 offering aimed at the retail market, with €1.25B printed thus far at a yield of 9.50%. Soc Gen has followed Deutsche Bank's lead with a benchmark Tier 1 offering of its own in the works, whilst price talk on Lloyd's 10 Euro denominated offering has been set around 195bps over swaps, and a 3y offering from West LB has been indicated around 130bps over swaps. Government Bonds have struggled for direction this morning in
Europe . Bunds were subject to particular volatility following the IFO surveys for August, initially selling off in response to better than expected headline readings, only to rally in response to dovish comments out of the IFO economists on the topic of interest rates. Gilts have outperformed ahead of another BoE buyback, with the generic front month futures contract reaching its highest level since late May at 120.39 in early trade . Ahead of conventional BTP auctions on Friday, Italy comfortably sold €3B in 2011 zero coupon bonds. Heading into the Treasury's $39B auction, new 5y notes hit a high yield just below 2.50% in the when issued market, and are trading at a concession of roughly 3bps to the existing issue at current levels.


- In Energy:
Iran Opec Min commented that OPEC to discuss expected Q1 output surplus at Sept 9th meeting || China to raise gasoline and diesel prices by CNY500/ton. The price increase may be effective on Thursday and in response to gains in crude oil prices. The National Development and Reform Commission's crude basket has risen in value by close to 11% over the past 22 working days, which is above the 4% that triggers price increases under China's fuel pricing mechanism.



*** NOTES ***

- Economic data continues to improve but official comments on sustainability remains cautious

- Japan Exports to US were worse than expectations



***Looking Ahead*** US durable goods and new home sales.

- (PD) Polish Central Bank Base Rate Announcement: No change expected, current base rate is 3.50%

-
7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Aug 21st: No expectations v 5.60% prior

- 8:30 (
US) Jul Durable Goods Orders: 3.0%e v -2.2% prior; Durables Ex Transportation: 0.9%e v 1.6% prior

- 9:00 (GE) German CPI - North Rhine-West. M/M: No expectations -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No expectations -0.7% prior;

- 10:00 (US) Jul New Home Sales 390Ke v 384K prior; Home Sales M/M: 1.6%e v 11.0% prior

- 10:00 (UK) BoE reverse auction with purchases in 2013 - 2019 maturities

- 10:30 (US) DOE Crude, gasoline and Distillate Inventories

- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchases notes/bonds with 2026 - 2039 coupon pass

- 12:00 (FR) French July Total Jobseekers: No expectations v 2.52M prior; Net Change: No expectations v -18.6k prior

- 12:30 (MX) Mexico to sell MXN1.55B in 3-year notes ans MXN 1.2B in 5-year notes

- 13:00 (US) Treasury's $39B 5-year Note auction

**Notable upcoming events: elections in Japan on Sunday.

 

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Max McKeggs Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries. If you are looking for a quality Forex TRADING Service, see details below.

 

 


Click here to request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service. By requesting a trial I authorize global-view to conact me.

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105