Wednesday August 26, 2009 - 11:55:59 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 26-Aug-2009 - 1154 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0642/45...Might rise towards 1.0700
R: 1.0680-0700 / 1.0730 / 1.0770-0800
S: 1.0600-0580 / 1.0550 / 1.0515-00 /
After breaking below 1.0600 and recording a low of 1.0580, Swiss has risen sharply breaking above the Resistance at 1.0630 mentioned earlier. If the current upside momentum continues, we might see a rise towards 1.0680-1.0700 in the US session. A break and a further sharp upmove above 1.0700 might see 1.0770-0800 on the upside. Any sharp downmove is not looking likely now and we expect the Support at 1.0550 to hold if a break below 1.0600 is seen once again in the US session.
GBP-USD @ 1.6263/65...Testing important Support
R: 1.6376-92 / 1.6469
S: 1.6260 / 1.6176 / 1.5997
Cable has strong medium term Support at 1.6260 and it has dipped during the day. This Support will have to be watched very closely. A significant break below this would make the pair bearish for 1.5950 over the next few days. But till this holds, we would continue to be bullish on the pair. There could be volatility when Durable Goods and New Home Sales data is released out of US. We would have to allow some time for the market to have settled after the data release and not be guided by a spike below 1.6260 unless, this break is significant.
GBP 10K Long at 1.6275, SL 1.6200, TP Open
AUD-USD @ 0.8316/20...Support at the 200-MA on the 4-hr chart (0.8242)
R: 0.8360-75 / 0.8448 / 0.8533
S: 0.8300 / 0.8242 / 0.8200-0.8180
Aussie has fallen from the high of 0.8387 and is now trading lower below the 21-DMA (0.8335). If the current downside momentum continues, a break below 0.8300 might pull it down towards the significant Support at the 200-MA on the 4-hr chart (0.8242). We expect this Support to hold. However a break and a further downmove below the 200-MA on the 4-hr chart (0.8242) might see a dip towards 0.8200-8180.
On the other hand if it manages to trade above 0.8300 and gains upside momentum, we might see a rise once again towards 0.8400 in the US session.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy AUD 10K at 0.8250, SL 0.8170, TP Open
As soon as the market trades 0.8330 after entry bring the SL up to 0.8290
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