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Forex Blog - European Market Update: JPY maintains firm tone with tax exemptions on dividends might add to repatriation of funds

Today 06:05am EST/10:05am GMT

European Market Update: JPY maintains firm tone with tax exemptions on dividends might add to repatriation of funds

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (FI) Finland Aug Consumer Confidence: 8.2 v 8.8e; Business Confidence: -23.0 v -22.0e

- (UK) Aug Nationwide House prices M/M: 1.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -2.7% v -3.9%e

- (GE) German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: 3.7 v 3.6e

- (GE) German CPI - Saxony M/M: 0.1% v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.6% prior

- (HU) Hungarian Jul Unemployment Rate: 9.7 % v 9.7%

- (SP) Spanish Q2 Final GDP (Constant SA) Q/Q: -1.1% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: -4.2% v -4.1%e

- (SW) Swedish Jul Unemployment Rate: 7.9% v 8.2%e

- (NV) Netherlands Producer Confidence -14.1 v -13.3e; Consumer Spending Y/Y: -3.1% v -2.1%e

- (DE) Denmark Jul Unemployment Rate: 3.7% v 4.0%e

- (IT) Italian Consumer Confidence: 111.8 v 107.9e

- (SW) Swedish Jul Household Lending Y/Y: 7.9% v 7.7% prior

- (TT) Taiwan Leading Index M/M: 2.3% v 1.8% prior; Coincident Index M/M: 2.7% v 1.1% prior

- (EU) Euro zone M3 Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.2%e; 3 mth avg. 3.4% v 3.5%e

- (NO) Norwegian Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 3.0%e

- (GE) German Aug CPI - Hesse M/M: 0.3% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.9% prior

- (GE) CPI - Brandenburg M/M: 0.1% v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.6% prior

- (UK) Q2 Prelim Total Business Investment Q/Q: -10.4% v -3.6%e; Y/Y: -18.4% v -12.2%

- (SA) South Africa PPI M/M: 2.9% v 1.9%e; Y/Y: -3.8% v -4.5%e

- (UK) U.K. CBI Quarterly Distributive Trades: -16 v -15 prior

- (GE) German Aug CPI - Bavaria M/M: 0.2% v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: 0.3% v -0.2% prior



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities news overnight: European bourses opened to the downside following mixed, but negatively biased trade in Asia and a lower close in yesterday's session. Spanish Q2 final GDP read, coming out right at the European open, below the expectation added further initial downside weight to equity trading. This downside bias was slowly shook off with equities turning positive by 3:30EST. Positive trading out of earnings based names accounted for much of this upward trend. Pre-market names that provided reports included liquor maker Diageo [DGE.UK], miner Kazkhmys [KAZ.UK], financial Credit Agricole [ACA.FR], hotel operator Accor [AC.FR], along with Dexia [DEXB.BE] and GDF Suez [GSZ.F] that reported after the close yesterday. Volvo [VOLVB.SW] provided its truck unit sales for July that were as expected down significantly y/y, adding weight to the sector. Other data releases, including German state CPI reads continued their trend of reads ahead of expectations while UK business investment figures disappointed to the downside. In choppy trading, equity markets have trended off their best levels that were printed before 4:00EST with the CAC and FTSE holding just above the unchanged mark while the DAX dipped above and below that line. IATA data for July air traffic flows had little effect on carriers as the industry group reiterated its view of a slow, volatile recovery. Turnover lowers have been moderately strong with the CAC continuing to outperform its averages on repeated strength in Alcaltel Lucent [ALU.FR] volume.

-In individual equities: Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] Reports Q2 Net €201M v €125Me, Rev €4.6B v €4.3Be. Tier 1 ratio 9.2% v 88% q/q. Q2 Provisions €1.13B v €365M y/y. || GDF Suez [GSZ.FR] Reports H1 Net €3.3B v €2.9Be, Rev €42.2B v €43.3Be. || Accor [AC.FR] Reports H1 Net loss €150M v gain €90Me (unclear if comp), pretax €182M v €163Me. Guides FY09 pretax profit €400-450M v €470Me. || Diageo [DGE.UK] Reports FY09 Net £1.6B v £1.6Be, Rev £9.3B v £9.3Be, declares final dividend 22p/shr. North America Volumes flat, Net Sales +1%. || Kazakhmys [KAZ.UK] Reports H1 Rev $1.65B v $1.6Be. Realised copper price $6,305 v $2,902 y/y. || Dexia [DEXB.BE] Reports Q2 net €283M v €388Me, Rev €1.64B v €1.8Be. Tier 1 capital ratio 11.3% v 10.4% y/y. Risk weighted assets at €148.6B -3% q/q. || Premier Oil [PMO.UK] Reports H1 Net $27M v $18Me; H1 production at 39.7K boe/d +4%. Full year production for 2009 expected to be around 46,000 boepd including contribution from the Shelley field, on-stream 6 August. || Tullow oil [TLW.UK] Large oil companies including BP and Shell are mulling acquiring stake in company's oil find in Uganda - Guardian. || Lloyds [LLOY.UK] Mulling the creation of a new form of capital - London Times. The capital would be offered to shareholders in a move to reduce Lloyd's use of the UK's insurance program for toxic assets. || Essilor [EI.FR] Reports H1 Net €202M v €198M y/y - La tribune. || Volvo [VOLVB.SW] Reports July truck sales 8.9K v 11.0K m/m. Western Europe 2,712 v 4,002 m/m, Eastern Europe 300 v 586 m/m, North America 1,113 v 1,424 m/m, South America 794 v 1,228 m/m, Asia 2,787 v 2,625 m/m. ||

- Speakers: Indian Trade Minister commented that he expected 15% growth in exports in FY2011 at $200B. The immediate objective is to reverse declining exports || India Fin Minister Mukherjee reiterated his view that the economy was showing positive signals, but many areas of concern remain || Thai Fin Ministry: Economy could contract by 2-3% in Q3 and expand by 2-3% in Q4 || Polish Central Banker Noga stated that Aug Inflation might rise to 3.7% and hit 4.0% by year-end. Inflation could decline to the 2.5% target by Q3 2010. He did not see room for any additional interest rate cuts in 2009 and that the Zloty currency near equilibrium level || ECB's Draghi commented that Italian output probably stopped falling over summer period || Japanese Min of Finance's Tango commented that the upcoming Sept G-20 in Pittsburgh will discuss macro economic and financial regulations issues || (SP) Spain Econ Sec Campo commented that the w Worst of economic crisis has passed; sees growth to begin in H2 2010 || Switzerland's chief negotiator Ambuehl comented that IRS will ask for more data on U.S. customers at other Swiss banks

- In Currencies: Heaviness in the JPY crosses is expected to be a negative influence on European-related pairs towards the USD. Recent cautious by China over its economic sustainability was cited as one factor. Dealers also taking notice of a Japanese press article noting that an increasing number of Japanese firms plan to take advantage of tax exemptions on dividends from overseas units to repatriate funds. Previously dividends were subject to the difference in corporate tax rates between Japan and the country in which the subsidiary was located. The Japanese government took around a 40% cut, which meant that many firms chose to hold their profits abroad. Some analyst noted that this dividend policy could have some significant FX impact as the projections the total flow in to Japan could eventually reach ¥4 trillion with the upcoming September could see decent inflows

- The EUR/USD holding above the 1.4200 level (Wednesday's lows) where chatter of sovereign account bids lurk. Overall dealers noting the pair continues to consolidate within 1.3950-1.4450 area but taking note of some technical factors should EUR/USD break the 1.4200 level and could provide some momentum towards 1.4050.

- In Fixed Income: Having digested a plethora of economic data government bond markets have experienced a choppy session in thin liquidity conditions. Eurozone M3 undershot expectations, posting its 9th successive decline despite the flood of ECB liquidity provided over that period, with a headline reading of 3% the lowest since July 1995. Conversely CPI figures for German states have demonstrated a clear pattern of increasing relative to July's negative readings and as a result Bunds yields have moved firmly back above key support of 3.25%. In other notable releases, borrowing from the ECB's discount facility jumped incredibly by almost €1B, whilst Spanish Q2 final GDP figures came in one tenth of a percent below expectations on both an annual and quarterly basis. Inflation linked supply has been the order of the day with Italy selling just under €1B in 10s, and Sweden selling SEK500M in 2015's. Ahead of the final leg of this weeks Treasury supply, new 7y notes are yielding 3.11% in the when issued market, a concession of just under 3bps to the existing issue

- In Energy: China's Sinopec [SNP] received government approval to expand Maoming refinery in Guangdong province. Company is seeking to nearly double the refinery's crude processing capacity to 25.5M metric tons or 512.1K bpd. || Reportedly, China's sovereign wealth fund CIC to increase its overseas investments by 10 times in 2010 compared to 2009 levels.



*** NOTES ***

***Looking Ahead: Weekly Jobless Claims, US 2Q09 GDP, Weekly Natural Gas Inventories, Treasury 7-year note auction.

- 8:15 (US) Fed's Lacker

- 8:30 (US) Q2 Prelim GDP Q/Q (Annualized): -1.5% v -1.0% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q2 Prelim Personal Consumption: -1.3% v -1.2% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q2 GDP Price Index: 0.2% v 0.2% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q2 Core PCE Q/Q: 2.0% v 2.0% prior

- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Aug 22nd: 565Ke v 576K prior, Continuing Claims: 6.242M v 6.241M prior

- 10:30 (US) Natural Gas Inventories

- Other data expected (no set time for release) include:

- (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserve w/e $ v $400.6B prior

- (SP) Spanish Jun Total Housing Permits M/M: % v -4.5% prior, Y/Y: % v -51.8% prior

- (GE) German Aug CPI - Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: No expectations v -0.1% prior, Y/Y: No expectations v -0.6% prior

- (GE) German Aug Prelim CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.5% prior

- (GE) German Aug CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v -0.1% prior, Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.7% prior

- (IS) Israel Q2 Unemployment Rate: No expectations v 7.6% prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



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