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Thursday August 27, 2009 - 23:50:34 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report  Friday 28 August 2009

 

News and views

Markets were quiet during the London morning, but sparked once NY opened. US equities initially sagged around 1.5%, investors troubled by a report from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation saying, in Q2, the number of problem US banks rose sharply, and the financial industry reported a $3.7 billion loss. Better Q2 GDP data was tempered slightly by the jobless claims report. However, with those reports out of the way, risk appetite steadily returned to see the S&P500 close up 0.3%. Crude oil futures bounced 1.8% during the NY afternoon, no obvious catalyst apparent.

EUR was quiet until mid-afternoon NY, when it suddenly lurched to 1.4406 from its earlier 1.4220-1.4280 range. As with oil, there was no obvious event to ascribe the move to (indeed, many commentaries suggested one was causing the other), but the price action suggests large flow. Rumours regarding an M&A transaction supporting EUR/GBP circulated during the London morning.

AUD had already started climbing before the Sydney close, and simply continued the move overnight to a high of 0.8420. An article by influential journalist Alan Mitchell talked up the chance of firmer monetary policy setting by the RBA, supporting AUD.

NZD spiked with the EUR move, and reached 0.6896, falling short of the magical 0.6900 by a whisker for the fifth time this month. AUD/NZD made a turnaround from yesterday's low and hovers around the previously strong support level of 1.2200.

US GDP growth unrevised at -1.0% annualised in Q2. Upward revisions to consumer spending, housing, exports, business investment in plant and equipment and government spending were neatly offset by lower estimates for business investment in structures and inventories.

US initial jobless claims down 10k to 570k last week, and continuing claims down 119k to 6133k. Both outcomes are consistent with diminishing labour market weakness.

Euroland M3 growth slows to 3.0% yr in July. Within the detail, loans to the private sector growth slowed to just 0.6% yr, the slowest on record. This will be of concern to the European Central Bank, and is a reason for them to maintain current easy policy settings for some time yet.

German CPI rises from -0.5% yr to 0.0% yr in August. From September, base effects are unfavourable and will lift the annual CPI back into positive territory. Also, German consumer confidence rose from 3.4 to 3.7 in the latest GfK survey.

UK business investment falls 10.4% in Q2. Much weaker than expected, this poses downside risks to Q2 GDP, with revised figures due Friday (advance estimate -0.8%). Other UK data included a 1.6% rise in house prices in August (Nationwide series) giving a -2.7% yr pace of decline; and a little changed CBI retail survey at -16 in Aug (from -15 in July).

Outlook

AUD and NZD outlook today: We await a break above 0.8480 and 0.6900 before becoming excited about higher legs in these currencies. Alternatively, a break below 0.8220 and 0.6760 would support the case for corrections of the moves since March. Today's NZ building consents report should continue the upward trend, and be NZD supportive.

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

 

 

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