Friday August 28, 2009 - 03:37:51 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 28-Aug-2009 - 0334 GMT
Dow (9580.63) closed in green (up 0.39%) for the eigth consecutive day followed by a rally in the bank stocks and Boeing which said that its 787 Dreamliner would make its first flight by the end of this year. Nasdaq (2027.73) was up by 0.16%. For Dow, the Trendline Resistance at 9650 would be the significant level to watch for. To see the Trendline Resistance click on the following link:
In Asia, Nikkei (10530.62) is up by 0.54% following the Wall Street gains, while Shanghai (2862.092) is trading down by 2.86%. The Sensex (15781.07) and Nifty (4688.20) were up 11.22 and 7.35 points respectively, there by closing flat yesterday. The Resistance at 16000 will be the significant level to watch for on the upside for the Sensex in the coming days. And for Nifty 4750 will be a significant level to watch on the upside.
Crude (72.60) has risen from yesterday's low of 69.83. If it continues to trade above 72.50 we might see it moving up and testing the Resistance at 75.00. A strong break above 75 might take it up towards 77-78 in the coming days. On the downside as mentioned earlier Support is seen in the region 70.50-00.
Gold (949.30) is trading between 940-950 for the last couple of days and is still looking mixed. It may continue to trade in the range 930-960 in which it has been trading since 10-Aug. A breakout on either side of this range (930-960) would decide further direction of move.
There's been a strong rise in the Euro (1.4365) and the Aussie (0.8387) have staged a strong recovery yesterday. The Pound (1.6268) too has shown a modest bounce from yesterday's low near 1.6155. The Swiss Franc (1.0585) had strengthened to as much as 1.0530. That Dollar-Yen (93.69) has bounced a bit from a low near 93.21 (the Support at 93.00-92.85 is being honoured so far) has also been a big help.
Hopes of recovery in the Eurozone as well as in the USA have aided the rise in the non-Dollar currencies. The overall environment may be said to be Dollar negative, with people looking for reasons to sell the Dollar rather than to buy it.
UK Q2 GDP (Prelims) is to be released today and is expected at -0.8%, compared to -2.4% in Q1. US Q2 GDP (Prelims) came in better than expected at -1.0% yesterday, compared to an expectation of -1.4%. See charts by clicking on links in the Data section below.
The Won is trading relatively stronger near 1245. Strong Resistance is seen in the 1255-65 region for USD-KRW. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 48.91 yesterday. The NDFs have eased a bit and the 1-mth NDF is quoting near 48.92/96 suggesting that people are not looking to sell the Rupee aggressively.
08:30 GMT UK GDP Q2 '09 (Adv), Exp -0.8%, Prev -0.8%
12:30 GMT US June Personal Income, Exp 0.1%, Prev -1.3%
12:30 GMT US June PCE Price Index M/M, Exp 0.3%, Prev 0.4%
US GDP Q2 '09 (Pre), Exp -1.4%, Prev -1.0%, Actual -1.0%
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