User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday August 28, 2009 - 10:04:21 GMT
Trade the News Staff -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Blog - European Market Update: Polish GDP exceeds forecasts and helps overall risk appetite; Dealer wait to see if USD encounters any more air pockets

Friday, August 28, 2009 5:53:28 AM

 European Market Update: Polish GDP exceeds forecasts and helps overall risk appetite; Dealer wait to see if USD encounters any more air pockets


- (FI) Finland Jul Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: % v -1.0%e
- (CZ) Czech Jul Industrial Production Y/Y: -18.4% v -16.0%e
- (SP) Spain Jul CPI (EU Harmonized) Y/Y: -0.8% v -1.0%e
- (SP) Spain Jul Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -4.6% v -3.0%e; Adj Retail sales Y/Y: -4.9% v -4.1%e
- (SW) Swedish Jul PPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.3%e; Y/Y:0.9% v 0.5%e
- (SW) Swedish Jul Retail Sales M/M: 1.9% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.4% v 3.2%e
- (PD) Poland Q2 GDP Y/Y: 1.1% v 0.5%e
- (IT) Italian PPI M/M: -0.6% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -8.5% v -8.1%e
- (NO) Norwegian Q2 Manufacturing Wage Index Q/Q 0.8% v 0.9% prior
- (UK) Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.7% v -0.8%e; GDP Y/Y: -5.5% v -5.6%e
- (UK) Jun Index of Services (3mth/3mth) -0.6% v -1.0% prior
- (EU) Euro-zone Aug Business Climate Indicator: -2.21v -2.50e; Consumer Confidence: -22 v -21e
- (EU) Euro-zone Aug Euro-Zone Economic Confidence: 80.6v 78.0e; Industrial Confidence: -26 v -28; Services Confidence: -11 v -17e
- (SZ) Swiss KOF Leading Indicator -0.04 v -0.60e; Strongest MoM increase on record)

- In equities news overnight: European equity markets opened to the positive side shaking off mixed trading results in Asia (specifically negative closes on the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite). Moderately positive earnings results out of Lukoil [LKOH.RU], Bouygues [EN.FR], and L'Oreal [OR.FR] paired reaffirmed guidance out of Carrefour [CA.FR] and mixed earnings out of Aeroports De Paris [ADP.FR], Party Gaming [PRTY.UK], Dana Petroleum [DNX.UK] and
Iberia [IBLA.SP]. Markets traded in choppy fashion through the first hour of trade while maintaining their positive footing. At 4:00EST Poland released its Q2 GDP at 1.1%, ahead of expectations and providing at least temporary relief to concerns regarding the CEE region. Equity markets moved sharply higher following this release, specifically on the DAX where many companies have banking and retail exposure to the country. UK preliminary Q2 GDP showed an upward revision at 4:30EST to -0.7% from the expected -0.8%e and sustained the equity softness. Markets paired some gains into the 5:00EST hr following the ECB August banking report that reiterated cautious guidance and expectations for slow recovery in 2010. In sector performance, Consumer Services (led by Carrefour) and Basic Materials led the upward trend while Telecommunications and Oil and Gas lagged. Trading volume has been strong with continued outperformance in the CAC and a positive showing in the DAX following chatter related to Commerzbank [CBK.GE].

-In individual equities: Carrefour [CA.FR] Reports H1 Net Loss €58.1M (includes €511M charge) v €58.7Me, Rev €41.3B (ex VAT) v €41.2Be. Confirms FY09 Op Profit target of €2.7 - 2.8B, providing current sales trends continue. || Lukoil [LKOH.RU] Reports Q2 Net $2.3B v $1.8Be, Rev $20B v $19Be. H1 Hydrocarbon production in BOE/d 2.2M v 2.17M y/y. || Dana Petroleum [DNX.UK] Reports H1 Pretax £22M v £34Me, Rev £165.1M v £196Me. || Party gaming [PRTY.UK] Reports H1 Net loss $67M v profit $33Me, Rev $201M v $200Me. || Stage Coach Group [SGC.UK] Provides Interim Statement: The overall profitability of the Group since 30 April 2009 has remained in line with management's expectations. || National Express Group [NEX.UK] Owners looking to reject revised offers for firm from CVC and Cosmen family -FT. || Aerports De Paris [ADP.FR] Reports H1 Net €127M v €123Me, Rev €1.3B v €1.3Be. Guides FY09 passenger traffic down 4.5-6.5% y/y, slight increase in 2010. || Bouygues [EN.FR] Reports 1H net €547M v €561Me; op profit €790M v €722Me. Raises guidance for 2009 Rev to €31.5B v €31.4Be (prior guidance was €31.3B). || Maurel Et Prom MAU.FR: Reports H1 Net €12M v loss €35M y/y, Rev €75.5M v €81.4Me (1 est) || Lufthansa [LHA.GE] S&P cuts ratings one notch to lowest level of investment grade, to BBB- from BBB; outlook Negative. || Tui AG [TUI1.GE] Hapag-Lloyd unit sees H2 loss of $700M to $1B -Platow. Losses at unit are reportedly to affect shareholders in Tui, the largest stake holder in operations. ||
Iberia [IBLA.SP] Reports Q2 Loss €73M v €70Me, Rev €1.1B v €1.1Be. Reports H1 Net loss €165M v loss €161Me. To cut flight capacity by 5% on H2. || Vopak [VPK.NV] Reports H1 Net €114M v €118Me , Rev €492M v €503Me. Guides FY EBITDA (ex items) €495M v €441Me. ||

- Speakers: ECB Aug Banking Sector Stability Report reiterated some general theme that Global and domestic demand to gradually recover in 2010. The report noted that tight lending practices could pose more risks to bank sector and that its outlook for banks remained uncertain. Loan losses might not peak before end of 2009 and stressed that banks should take advantage of public financial aid || Polish Central Banker Pietrewicz (usually a policy Dove) commented after better-than-expected Q2 GDP data that there was no need to change interest rates. Direction of economy was optimistic and noted that 2009 GDP could exceed 1% || Polish Central Banker Slawinski was also on the wires noting that its Economy was clearly entering recovery phase || EU's Almunia noted that the Euro-zone cannot ignore risks of inflation in medium to long term || Polish Central Banker Owsiak stated that today's Q2 GDP data in Poland suggested that there was no need for interest rate cuts in H2 || Polish PM Tusk commented that the 2010 budget deficit would be larger than what Gov't sought. Tusk added that the country needs 'very serious' fiscal discipline ||

- In Currencies: The Better Polish GDP numbers indirectly helped fuel additional risk appetite and complemented with firmer equity markets, that Equity correlation working with the USD and JPY related apirs. In the Macro picture the USD maintaining it's broad trading range but probing its extreme deviation point. The EUR/USD was little changed from its
Tokyo open at 1.4365 and holding below its historical pivot point of 1.4430. The USD/CHF pair continued to probe the key daily pivot point of 1.0570. Dealer chatter focused on the price action seen in yesterday's late NY session. Dealer chatter focused on the price action noting that the flow was actually a USD/CHF amount around three yards ($3B). Reason varied as to the rationale for the flow ranging from the result of the CHF 5.5B UBS stake the Swiss govt sold out of last week that someone bought and paid for out of USD; A bank's system error that triggered the flow; repercussions from the US tax ruling on Switzerland; to simply a stop order being elected in thin, summer market. Overall month end factors could result in further choppy price action later today.
- The concern over the USD sentiment helping commodities hold onto gains into the NY morning with Oct crude futures up over 70 cents to $73.25 area and spot gold up 0.3% above the 951 level.

- In Fixed Income: Government bonds have suffered under the weight of an equity rally in
Europe this morning, following slightly better than expected Polish and UK GDP figures and an improvement in Eurozone Business confidence. The yield on the 10y Bund is 2bps above its 200 day movng average at 3.27%, with the 10y Gilt approaching 3.57%. Italy sold €6.5B in conventional 3 and 10y BTPs with reasonable results. In corporate issuance, order books on a $750M offering from Swiss Re are open with price talk around the +165bps/swaps area. ||Debt futures decline also attributed to yesterday as German inflation moved out of negative territory and with confidence indicators continuing to improve the medium term.

- In Energy/Metals/Commodities: China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology commented that domestic nonferrous metals industry still faced a problem of oversupply and no certainty that the nascent recovery in demand would be sustained even though there are signs of improving market conditions. ||
China's NDRC has told Sinopec and CNPC to increase liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply . Sinopec's refining volume might reach a 2009 record in Aug and could rise 29% from Jan levels.

- In the papers: UK FSA Chairman Turner in an FT piece noted that the "Tobin tax" was feasible and enforceable. Setting the right level of a transaction tax would be difficult. This is a 'hot issue'. Back in Jan 2006 ECB's Trichet commented that the central bank was "hostile" to a Tobin-style tax on securities transactions. A Tobin tax is the suggested tax on all trade of currency across borders. Named after the economist James Tobin, the tax is intended to put a penalty on short-term speculation in currencies. The original tax rate he proposed was 1%, which was subsequently lowered to between 0.1% and 0.25%.

*** NOTES ***
- Polish GDP exceeded expectations and provided European equity markets with a reason for continued euphoria
- Japan unemployment rate hits record high 5.7% just ahead of Sunday elections
- China's new Aug loans might fall below CNY300B v CNY356B in July
- Market seems to be testing SNB resolve on CHF currency
- Fed's Bullard: Cautiously optimistic about US economic outlook; Rates will stay low for extended period; Fed to begin exit of current policy in 2010, exiting includes raising Fed Funds rate
- The Big question as markets head into Sept and year end: What will happen when stimulus spending dries up?

***Looking Ahead
- 6:30 (PD) Polish Central Bank's Skrypek speaks in Polish Parliament
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: -0.4% e v -0.4% prior, FGV Inflation IGP-M Y/Y: -0.7% e v -0.7% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Q2 Current Account (BOP) -$11.2B e v -$9.1B prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Jul Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.5% e v 0.7% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -3.0% e v 6.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jul Personal Income 0.1% e v -1.3% prior; Personal Spending 0.2% e v 0.4% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jul PCE Core M/M: 0.1% e v 0.2% prior; PCE Core Y/Y: 1.4% e v 1.5% prior; PCE Deflator Y/Y: -0.9% e v -0.4% prior
- 10:00 (US) Final Aug University of Michigan Confidence 64.0e v 63.2 prior


Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.





Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105