Friday August 28, 2009 - 12:10:29 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 28-Aug-2009 - 1208 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0562/64...Significant Support at 1.0500
R: 1.0620-30 / 1.0680-0700 / 1.0730
S: 1.0500 / 1.0445 / 1.0359
Swiss has fallen sharply below 1.0600 from the high of 1.0618 and is trading lower now. It is looking strong on its downmove and if this downside momentum continues we might see it moving down towards the significant Support at 1.0500. As mentioned earlier 1.0500 is a significant level to watch for on the downside, a break below which might increase the chances of a dip towards 1.0300 in the coming days. Also, as the strength on the downside is looking much stronger than the upmove, we see greater chances of a break below 1.0500.
Any sharp upmove is not looking likely now. However, if it gains upside momentum a strong break above 1.0630 might take it up towards 1.0680-0700 in the US session.
GBP-USD @ 1.6346/49...Looks bullish
R: 1.6385-96 / 1.6435 / 1.6463
S: 1.6290 / 1.6257-49 / 1.6163
Cable has risen sharply post the GDP numbers as the Dollar weakened against most currencies. Were we correct on our intuition that 1.6155 was the bottom. Possiby yes? But this could be confirmed on a break of 1.6470. The Projected Max High for the day is at 1.6435. The EUR-GBP Cross has found Resistance at 0.8775 and could now be looking to come down. Hence, Cable is likely to rise further. The Cross had run up quite a bit over the last several days and was certainly preparing to fall.
In the medium term, if the pair continues to take Support near 1.6150, it could be bullish for 1.72 over the next several days. We would be on a look for entering into at the right time. The GDP numbers came in better than expectations at -0.7% q-o-q v/s -0.8% forecasted.
AUD-USD @ 0.8442/45...Trading near the crucial Resistance region 0.8450-70
R: 0.8450-70 / 0.8494 / 0.8580-0.8600
S: 0.8400-0.8380 / 0.8350-30 / 0.8270
Aussie is continuing its rally and it has broken above the Resistance at 0.8430 mentioned earlier. 0.8450-70 will be a very crucial Resistance region to watch for. If Aussie keeps up its current upside momentum, a strong break above this Resistance region 0.8450-70 might see a rise towards 0.8600 in the coming days/week. As the pair is looking strong on its upmove, any sharp downmove is not looking likely now. However if the Resistance region 0.8450-70 holds, we might see Aussie moving down towards 0.8400-8380 in the US session.
AUD 10K Long at 0.8250, TSL 0.8375 (up from 0.8360), TP Open
As soon as the market trades 0.8500 bring the TSL up to 0.8410
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