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Monday August 31, 2009 - 10:05:26 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Price action subdued in quiet session; Markets brush off another sharp Chinese equity sell-off and Japanese voter revolution

Today 05:44am EST/09:44am GMT

European Market Update: Price action subdued in quiet session; Markets brush off another sharp Chinese equity sell-off and Japanese voter revolution



- (IN) India Q2 GDP Y/Y; 6.1% v 6.2%e

- (SA) South Africa Jul Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.5%e; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.8% v 5.5%e

- (HU) Hungarian Producer Prices M/M: -1.5% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 6.0% v 6.1%e

- (TH) Thailand Total Trade Balance $799M v $939M prior; Current Account: $378M v $633Me

- (SP) Spain Jun Current Account: -€3.3B v -€5.0B prior

- (SW) Swedish Jun Wages - Non-Manual Workers Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.4% prior

- (IT) Italian Jun Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -1.9%e

- (CZ) Czech Jul Money Supply Y/Y: 5.3% v 7.1% prior

- (NO) Norwegian Jul Retail sales Volume M/M: 2.3% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 1.1%e; Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.4% v 6.1%e

- (EU) Aug Euro-Zone CPI Estimate Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.3%e

- (IT) Italian Aug CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.1%e

- (IT) Italian Aug CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v -0.1%e


- In equities news overnight: In equities: With the UK closed for the August Summer Bank Holiday, equity trading in Europe has been thin broadly muted. Themes and towns in
Europe have rolled over from the mixed picture in Asia following Japanese monumental national elections and the 22% decline in China's Shanghai Composite for the month of August (including at -6.6% move in today's session). This mixed, risk averse town led to a downside open to those continental bourses holding trade today. Earnings reports in the pre-market were light and included the Austrian construction firm Strabag [STA.AS] and French industrial group Wendel [MF.FR]. Erratic trading dominated the 3:00-4:00EST hr as markets sought direction. The release of EU Euro-zone and Italian Aug CPI reads at 4:00EST, both of which were stronger than expected provided a sharp boost to equities which rallied to their session highs. These levels, still in negative territory, were quickly surrendered in the 5:00ESt hr with the CAC off 0.6% and the DAX off 0.7%. As expected, volumes remained light with both bourses reporting turnovers over 20% below their already sedated summer averages.

-In individual equities: Wendel [MF.FR] Reports H1 Net loss €959M v loss €879Me. NAV per share at €37.2, Net cash €2.55B v €2.31B H/H. Group has received further extensions on its debt facilities. || Strabag [STR.AS] Reports Q2 €106M v €71Me, Rev €3.3B v €3.3Be. H1 order backlog €14.3B v €13.7B y/y. Q2 Output volume €3.42B v €3.37B y/y. || Banco Popolare [BP.IT] Reports 1H Net €204M v €177Me. Says "reasonably optimistic" about 2H outlook. H1 tier 1 cap 6.2% (ex-gov bond issuance). Q2 Net loss €14M v loss €32Me. || Nordea [NDA.SW] Acquires
Denmark's Fionia Bank for €121M. Fionia has approx 400 employees in 29 branches. Plans to recapitalize Fionia operations. Expects positive return from acquisition in 2011. || Independent News and Media [INM.UK] Planning large secondary offer in coming months -Sunday Business Post. Secondary to be placed at significant discount to current trading levels according to article. || Lloyds [LLOY.UK] To divest controlling stakes in HBOS Plc integrated finance unit's debt - London Telegraph. The debt may be offered to buyers at a discount. || HSBC [HSBA.UK] To sell ¥60B in samurai bonds. || Lufthansa [LHA.GE] Jet Blue to partner with Lufthansa to file a code-share request with the US Dept of Transportation - FT. The request is expected to be filed by as early as Monday. In 2008, Lufthansa paid $300M to buy a 19% stake in JetBlue. ||

Novartis [NOVN.SZ] Head of Vaccines and Diagnostics Unit Owsald: Company to deliver its first swine flu vaccine in October - Basler Zeitung. Seeking to start Japanese clinical trials during the month of September. ||

- Speakers: BoJ's Shirakawa commented that the Japanese central bank was always watching the impact of currency moves its economy. The BOJ gov reiterated his view that the economic recovery could begin after H2 with pace of recovery only likely to be moderate. The BOJ also reiterated standard G7 mantra that currency should reflect economic fundamentals. He also noted that currency rates tend to swing on short term speculation. Central banks hope that currency movements are in stable manner. On the inflation situation, the BOJ noted that risk of a deflationary spiral was not high but that the output gap to affect Japanese price going forward. It would be a long time before CPI growth returned to normal. The BOJ noted that commercial paper and corporate bond yields are back to pre-Lehman levels (last Sept). There are some bright spot in the global economic outlook but uncertainty remains high || China FX Regulator SAFE commented that it would prevent large fund outflows and sought to improve its long-term return on currency reserves. -The regulator noted that it saw some net capital inflows and would widen outbound portfolio investment channels || Japan MOF official Tango commented that the department would listen to new Gov't requests on budget issues || RBI Deputy Governor commented that the central bank faced challenge to keep inflation low

- In Currencies: Japanese election results and another sharp sell-off in China equities had the market focused on risk aversion. The shift in commodities came in tandem with equity market as Crude approached the NY morning off almost $1.50 per contract at $71.30 in the Oct NYMEX contract. However, the European session was marked by quiet consolidation of the price action exhibited during the Asian morning.

- In Fixed Income: Government bonds are modestly bid in thin volumes this morning in
Europe, with equities under pressure following another Shanghai sell off. Yield curves are undergoing some bull steepening , with better buying of short dated issues. There was little market reaction the highlight - Euro-zone flash CPI reading for August, which came in at -0.2%, slightly above consensus forecasts and the third consecutive negative reading. Some interesting levels are being probed in admittedly thin liquidity conditions. Bunds reclaimed the 3.25% level in the cash market with the yield lower by a basis point and right at its 200 day moving average of 3.241%. In Asian hours, the 2y Note fell back below 1.00% for the first time in two weeks, a risk aversion trade following the DPJ's victory in Japan

- In Energy: Chinese State think-tank NDRC denied press speculation that the Chinese government sought to reduce the frequency of domestic fuel-price || Japan July Oil Product Output came in at 15.8M kl, down10.8% y/y while its oil Imports declined by 18.1% y/y to 17.4M kilo liters.

- Commodities: China's state-owned enterprises may unilaterally terminate commodities contracts they have signed with foreign banks

- In the paper: India might cut its economic-growth target for the period from 2007-2012 according to the Economic Times.- PM Singh might lower the 5-yr growth estimate to 7.8% from 9% prior. The estimate for the 12 months ending March 31 might be revised to 6.3% from as much as 7.75%

*** NOTES ***

- European morning quiet with London off for summer holiday

- India's Q2 GDP came in just a tad soft at 6.2%; The question lingers if India lowers its economic-growth target for the period from 2007-2012

- Japan: LDP swept out after resounding DPJ victory…question is whether there would be any honeymoon period with unemployment at record levels

- Germany state election results over the weekend swung to the left and bring doubts into play whether current CDU/CSU/FDP coalition would survive following the general election on Sept 27th

***Looking Ahead

- 8:00 (SA) South Africa Jul Trade Balance (ZAR) -0.4Be v 3.2B prior

- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Jul Industrial Production M/M: 1.5%e v 0.2% prior, Y/Y: -10.5%e v -10.9% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian June Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.2% e v -0.5% prior, Quarterly GDP Annualized: -3.0% e v -5.4% prior

- 9:45 (US) August Chicago Purchasing Manager 48 e v 43.4 prior

- 10:00 (US) August NAPM-Milwaukee 49e v 45 prior

- 10:00 (TU) Turkish Jul Trade Balance (TRY) -3.9B e v -4.2B prior

- 10:30 (EU) ECB's Nowotny


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