Wednesday September 2, 2009 - 03:51:22 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 02-Sep-2009 - 0332 GMT
Dow (9310.60) and Nasdaq (1968.89) fell 2% each yesterday on rumours of bank failure. Good ISM Manufacturing price numbers did not have any significant impact on the market. The Asians are following the weakness in the US markets. Nikkei is down 2.63%. Surprisingly, Shanghai is up 1.18%. Having broken the Support at 2800 this week, we would expect it to come down to 2500 over the next few days.
The Sensex (15551.19) ended lower yesterday in a choppy trade. It came off after rising 260 points to close the day lower 115 points. There's immediate Support at 15200 on the Sensex and next at 14900. At the moment, a break of 14900 is not foreseen. With global markets sending out weak cues and concerns over drought continuing to worry, the Sensex is likely to open lower. For the week, the range for the Sensex is likely to be 14900-16200.
Crude (68.52) fell sharply and recorded a low of 68.00 yesterday, as the lack of investors confidence in the economic recovery drove down the US Stock indices by 2%. A close below 68 might increase the chances of a downmove towards 65. The US Crude inventories data is due today and it is expected to show a drop of 400,000 barrels in US Crude inventories.
Gold (954.30) is continuing to be ranged between 940 and 960 for the last one week. on the upside Trendline Resistance is seen at 965 a break above which might see a rise towards 980 in the coming days. On the downside Support is seen at 930. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
"Risk" still seems to be a part of the market sentiment, although we are hoping for the definition of "Risk" to change. Sharp fall in the Euro (1.4210) and the Aussie (0.8295) overnight, alongwith fall in Dollar-Yen (currently 92.88) to a low of 92.52 in the early Asian session today.
The Euro retains its overall uptrend, with good Support in the 1.4200-4150 region, even though it is finding it difficult to rise past 1.4370. Likewise with the Aussie. Crucial juncture for Dollar-Yen...will 92.50 hold as Support or break? Needs to be watched.
The Pound (1.6155) had dipped to a low near 1.6115. It may be nearing a strong Support at 1.6026. Dollar-Swiss (1.0666) had rallied to a high near 1.07.
Dollar-Won (1248) continues to trade sideways. Dollar-Rupee NDFs are quoting near 49.02/07 and 49.17/27 for 1-week and 1-mth respectively.
3M USD LIBOR was set at 0.33%. The yields on US Treasuries dipped between 4-5 bps for maturities between 2-7Y. However the 10Y yields dipped 2 bps while 30Y bond yields rose 2 bps.
ECB is expected to announce the interest rates tomorrow and BoE next week. ECB is expected to keep the interest rates unchanged at 1.00%.
AU GDP Q2 '09
...Actual 0.6%...Previous 0.4%
09:00 GMT EU GDP Q2 '09 (Pre)
...Expected -0.1%...Previous -0.1%
AUD RBA Interest Rate
...Actual 3.00%...Previous 3.00%
...Actual -0.3%...Previous -0.8%
...Actual 9.5%...Previous 9.4%
Aug US Manufacturing ISM
...Actual 52.9 ...Previous 48.9
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