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Wednesday September 2, 2009 - 13:09:55 GMT
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Equity Indices Vulnerable to Strong Short-Covering Rally

Equity markets are expected to open lower based on a weaker overnight trade.  Yesterday’s sell-off took out important retracement levels after turning the main trend down earlier in the week.  Volume was much heavier yesterday after weeks of thin trading conditions.  This could be an indication that the selling pressure was real and not just a lack of buyers.  Technically, the break may have been too much too fast which makes this market vulnerable to big short-covering rallies.  Today’s slew of reports could trigger a volatile trade today.


Look for December Gold to weaken if the Dollar continues to strengthen.  The lack of inflation is also keeping a lid on prices.  December Copper is the wildcard.  News that China will take action to curb excessive demand could put pressure on this market, but signs of a recovery in the U.S. economy will limit losses out of expectations of greater demand.


December Crude Oil is trading at the low end of its recent range. A weaker stock market is likely to keep the pressure on crude oil, but a bullish inventory report today could turn the whole market around like it did two weeks ago.  Watch for a choppy-trade today.


The U.S. Dollar is trading mixed overnight following a strong rise yesterday.  Yesterday’s much anticipated break in the equity markets triggered a risk aversion rally in the foreign currency markets encouraging investors to seek the safety of the Dollar.


Today could be a much different day as a slew of U.S. economic reports may trigger a choppy, two-sided trade.  Trading may also be light and directionless as investors begin to square up positions ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.  Today’s trade is likely to be influenced by a preliminary labor number from ADP, followed by U.S. Productivity and Factory Orders Reports. In addition to these reports traders will have to deal with crude inventories and the FOMC minutes from the August 12 meeting.


Technical factors are also likely to yield a strong influence as many of the foreign currency markets approach short-term oversold levels.


Trading could be light in the September Euro as investors await tomorrow’s European Central Bank meeting.  Based on the recent series of stronger economic reports, traders are looking for the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged.  The key to the report will be any commentary regarding government stimulus.  Traders are waiting to see if the ECB decides to end some of its stimulus programs. 


The September British Pound is trading better this morning.  This move is most likely technically related as the Pound has reached a short-term oversold level.  Fundamentally, there has been very little to get excited about.  Yesterday’s announcement that U.K. manufacturing contracted more than expected was another sign that the economy is still not ready to recover.


The September Japanese Yen is likely to continue to take its direction from the stock market.  The weaker the stock market gets, the more risk adverse traders will get.  This will continue to encourage repatriation into safety of the lower yielding Yen. 


Lower energy and equity prices continue to weaken the September Canadian Dollar.  Comments from Bank of Canada officials are indicating its concern over the value of the Canadian Dollar.  The BoC wants to see a weaker currency in order to stimulate demand for Canadian goods. 


In summary, look for a choppy, two-sided trade today.  Light volume could trigger volatile trading in both directions as major players stand aside until Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.




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