Thursday February 3, 2005 - 17:17:06 GMT
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European Forex Session Wrap-up - 3/2/05
The European session closes today, february 3rd, with the USD finally breaking key levels against the CHF, and threatening to do so against the EUR. The greenback is higher against all majors today, proven the technically picture we presented the correct for this short term. No surprisingly, we had bad data from the ISM services number, which fell to 59.2, and what is more funny is that it just caused the break of key levels by the USD against the CHF, which to date had proven to be very tough to break. It is commonly said than in a bull trend negative news are a buy and viceversa in a bear trend. Well, it may be accurate or not, but the true fact is that reaction to news has not been the expected one for some time now, which means they are just a mere excuse for anyone trying to understand why they lost in that particular time or moment after the news, when they took the wrong side of the trade. Not to forget tomorrow we have the fukll unemployment report, and, if what we saw today is the real trend, tomorrow it can be a flashing day.
Trading Recap :At the time of this writing, the EUR is trading around 1.2960 against the greenback, or 70 pips down with respect to european opening levels, still fighting to hold above the 50% retracement fibo level of the previous uptrend, trying not to follow its european fellow CHF. GBP is doing around 1.8795, 45 pips down. The Swiss Franc –CHF- around 1.2025, loosing (USD gaining) 95, and finally breaking 50% fibo retracement level from previous downtrend. It may be a very strong signal for the greenback. And finally, the Yen around 104.55, down some 90 pips.
USD small brothers session performance: the AUD is trading around 0.7695, 75 pips down, the NZD trading around 0.71, or 45 pips down, and CAD trading around 1.2425, down 50 pips.
Economic events for february 4th: 5:00:00 AM JPN Dec Leading Indicators (4) // 5:00:00 AM JPN Dec Coincident Indicators- prelim (3) // 11:00:00 AM GER Dec Factory Orders - prelim (3)// 12:00:00 PM CAN Jan Change in Employment (4)// 12:00:00 PM CAN Jan Unemployment Rate (4)// 1:30:00 PM US Jan Average Hourly Earnings Gwth (3)// 1:30:00 PM US Jan Unemployment Rate (5***)// 1:30:00 PM US Jan Nonfarm Payrolls (5***)// 1:45:00 PM US Fed Chairman Greenspan Speaks (4) // 3:00:00 PM CAN Jan Ivey PMI (2) My (valoration) of the economic events of the day goes from 1 to 5 depending on the influence the news has in the market (1 lowest – 5 highest).
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