Thursday September 3, 2009 - 03:39:59 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 03-Sep-2009 - 0337 GMT
US equities closed lower yesterday on unemployment concerns. There's strong Support on Dow (9280.67) at 9180-9200 levels which might be tested over the next couple of days. The ADP Non Farm Employment change had come in worse than expected at -298K as against expectation of -250K causing concern over the NFP numbers due to be released tomorrow.
Asians indices are mostly up except Nikkei which is down 0.41%. Shanghai is up 3%. The Sensex which had closed 0.5% lower yesterday is likely to open in the green today on global cues. There's Support on Sensex at 15350 for today. And the range over the next few days is 15350-16200. A break of this range would decide the future course the index wants to take.
Crude (68.12) closed flat yesterday. The US Curde inventories data released yesterday showed a drop of 400,000 barrel which was less than expected (600,000). As mentioned earlier a close below 68 might increase the chances of a downmove towards 65.
Gold (975.70) has risen sharply yesterday breaking above the Resistance at 965. The next significant level to be watched for is the Trendline Resistance seen at 980. If the current upside momentum continues a break above 980 might see a rise once again towards 1000. If 980 holds we might see a downmove towards 965-960. To see the Trendline Resistance on the Gold graph click on the following link:
The Euro (1.4276) has risen and might test the Resistance at 1.4370. Dollar-Yen has broken below the significant Support at 92.50 and a break below the previous low of 91.73 (13-Jul) may see further downmove towards 91.00. Euro-Yen Cross has Support in the region 131.50-30 and if it holds we may see a rise towards 132.50-133.00 today.
The Pound (1.6274) has risen from yesterday's low of 1.6113. A break above the Resistance at 1.6300 might see a rise towards 1.6400-50. Swiss continues to remain ranged between 1.0550-1.0700. Aussie has risen and may test the significant Resistance region 0.8450-70 today.
Dollar-Won (1243) is continuing to trade sideways. Dollar-Ruppe NDF 1-week is quoting at 48.97/49.02 and 1-Month at 49.05/10.
3M USD LIBOR was set at 0.33% yesterday. The yields on US Treasuries have fallen between 3-6 bps for maturities over 5Y. The yields have been falling over the last few days now and in the process the 10Y benchmark yields (3.32%) has fallen below a medium term trend Support. There's a danger of double top formation on the 10Y yield curve. To see the chart, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00
Aug Australia Trade Balance
...Actual A$ -1.56 Bln...Previous A$ -0.54 Bln
11:45 GMT E-15 ECB Announcement
...Expected 1.00%...Previous 1.00%
09:00 GMT EU Retail Sales
...Expected 0.3%...Previous -0.2%
AU GDP Q2 '09
...Actual 0.6%...Previous 0.4%
EU GDP Q2 '09 (Pre)
...Actual -0.1%...Previous -0.1%
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."