China's equities rally (Shanghai index +4.8%) got the ball rolling and helped US equities at the open. A mildly disappointing US jobless claims report dampened the mood slightly, but consensus beating services ISM and chain store sales report supported risk, the S&P500 posting a strong final hour to be up 0.8%. Copper and gold each posted 1.4% gains. Gold is now close to Feb-09 resistance, having gained 5% gain in two days, but causal factors are not obvious ("mirroring the dollar" is the media's favourite). US were subdued, and 3mth Libor is now at 0.32%.
Currency markets were a mixed bag of minor moves. The US dollar index was slightly firmer from the Sydney close, reflecting a slightly weaker EUR. EUR did spike to 1.4348 around London, but fell thereafter to 1.4237. The ECB meeting left rates unchanged, and gave no hints on the timing of an policy tightening. Eurozone retail sales and PMI services data disappointed consensus. Sweden's central bank also kept rates on hold, but sounded more dovish. JPY was slightly weaker at 92.65. The new Japanese governing party showed its colours accepting JPY strength but disapproving of currency intervention.
AUD spiked to 0.8427 during early London, and then congested between 0.8367 and 0.8411 where it currently resides.
NZD made a 0.6829 high before falling back to the 0.6760 area. AUD/NZD provided no new clues, consolidating between 1.2350 and 1.2400.
US ISM non-manufacturing rises from 46.4 to 48.4 in Aug. The services and construction ISM composite headline rose 2 pts to 48.4. The activity sub-component jumped more than 5 points to back above 50 (i.e. from 46.1 to 51.3), consistent with activity growing again after ten months of decline. Orders and jobs were less negative, the latter reversing July's dip lower, and supportive of our forecast that non-farm payrolls declines by a relatively modest 150k in August. Prices jumped sharply to the highest for the year so far, probably a function of the higher oil price.
US initial jobless claims edged down 4k to 570k. Whilst not a dramatic improvement, this outcome maintains the downtrend that began way back in late March from claims' 674k peak (abstracting from the July volatility caused by stresses in the auto sector). However the current level of claims is not consistent with jobs growth, so the downtrend will need to continue and indeed steepen if the recent less weak/positive news on the economy is to translate into positive payrolls outcomes down the track. Similarly, the continuing claims outcome (a 92k rise) leaves in place just the weakest of downtrends, not consistent with much further improvement in the labour market beyond August.
US chain store sales fell -2.0% yr in August, improved from -5.0% yr in July, somewhat stronger than weekly figures through the month had suggested would be the case. This lifts the prospect that ex auto retail sales might point a rise in August.
The European Central Bank left its repo rate unchanged at 1.00% following last night's Council meeting. At the press conference ECB chief Trichet described rates as "appropriate" and gave no hint whatsoever about the timing of any policy retightening, which we expect to still be at least a year away. On the data front, there was an upward revision from 49.5 to 49.9 to the services PMI for Aug, which means the Euroland services sector is now essentially stabilised. Euroland retail sales drifted 0.2% lower in July.
UK services PMI continues to rise, to 54.1 in Aug, its highest in almost two years, adding to the weight of evidence pointing to positive GDP growth in Q3.
AUD and NZD outlook today: These currencies have not technically confirmed either a readiness to move higher or the beginning of a post-March correction. The technicals (pointing lower) and fundamentals (pointing higher) are at odds, and leave us in a neutral stance until price action adds directional clues. Major support and resistance levels to watch are 0.8150 and 0.8500 for AUD, and 0.6630 and 0.6900 for NZD. There are no expected data releases today.
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.