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Thursday September 3, 2009 - 23:13:10 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (3 September 2009)

The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4235 level and was capped around the $1.4345 level.  The common currency failed to sustain gains it made during the Australasian session despite a positive day in U.S. equity markets.  There is a growing sense among central banking policymakers that the worst is behind the global economy but most remain extremely cautious about the prospects of unwinding the massive amount of monetary stimuli in the markets and raising rates.  All eyes will be fixated on tomorrow’s August non-farms payrolls data in the U.S. with some economists bracing for a worse-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report following yesterday’s worse-than-expected August ADP private employment survey.  Data released in the U.S. today saw weekly initial jobless claims off 4,000 to 570,000 while continuing jobless claims were were up 92,000 to 6.234 million.  Also, the August ISM non-manufacturing index printed at 48.4, up from the July reading of 46.4 but still below the “boom-or-bust” 50.0 level that defines economic growth.  Traders will pay close attention to tomorrow’s meeting of G20 central bankers and finance officials in London followed by the G10 central bankers’ meeting in Basel on Monday.   In eurozone news, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged today, as expected.  ECB President Trichet reported the economic recovery in the eurozone is likely to be “uneven” and added it is too early to remove monetary stimulus measures.  On a positive note, the ECB reported the period of economic contraction has ended.  Data released in the eurozone today saw the EMU-16 July retail sales index decline 0.2% m.m and 1.8% y/y.  Also, the EMU-16 PMI composite output index improved to 50.4 in August from 47.0 in July.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥92.75 level and was supported around the ¥93.05 level.  Democratic Party of Japan official Fujii reiterated the newly-elected DPJ respects Bank of Japan’s independence.  The DPJ added it may redirect up to ¥5 trillion in “wasteful” fiscal stimulus and added it will not permit new Japanese government bond supply to exceed that of the current fiscal year.  Bank of Japan Governor will attend the Group of Twenty meeting in London this week followed by the Bank for International Settlements meeting in Basel.  The Nikkei 225 stock lost 0.17% to close at ¥10,240.02.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥132.55 level and was supported around the ¥131.15 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥151.75 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥87.55 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar gained ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8290 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8273.  There were rumours in the market today that China may suspend equity initial public offerings from September to October.  China announced yesterday that it plans to purchase US$ 50 billion in International Monetary Funds bonds.  Chinese benchmark money rates rose by the most in one month on speculation that demand for capital will increase ahead of Metallurgical Corp. of China Ltd’s first share issuance next week. 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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