Friday September 4, 2009 - 03:41:02 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 04-Sep-2009 - 0335 GMT
Dow (9344.61) and Nasdaq (1983.20) was up yesterday by 0.69% and 0.82% respectively ahead of the NFP numbers scheduled today. There's Support on Dow at 9250. The Asian indices are trading mixed. Shanghai (2836.26) has recovered quite a bit of losses incurred over the last several days. It was up 4.8% yesterday and is trading lower by 0.31% today. The Nikkei (10198.10) is down 0.16%.
The Sensex (15398.33) has closed weak yesterday on lower volumes after trading higher for most of the trading day. It has found important Support near 15350 yesterday. Today, this trendline Support is at 15400. We shall have to see if this holds. A break of this could possibly target 14900 over next week. But such a break is not envisaged immediately. Overall the index looks to range between 14900-16200 over the last several days. To see the chart of Sensex, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/sensexcandle.shtml#candle
Crude (68.12) is continuing to trade near 68 with lack of momentum on either direction. With the US Labor Department's Non-Farm Payroll report due today, the closing for this week might play a significant role in Crude's further direction of move.
Gold (990.50) continued its rally yesterday breaking above the singificant Resistance at 980 mentioned earlier. It is looking strong on its upmove and we might expect the rally to continue breaking above 1000 if the current upside momentum continues.
Euro and Aussie has come off from yesterday's high. However they are still keeping up their overall uptrend intact with their respective Support regions 1.4200-1.4180 and 0.8300-0.8280. Cable has broken above its Resistance at 1.6300 and may expect to continue its rally.
Dollar-Yen (82.57) is trading above 92.50 and the overall view remains bearish with the Significant Resistance in the region 92.80-93.00. Euro-Yen has immediate Support in the region 131.50-30. If it holds we might see it testing the Resistance at 133. Swiss continues to retain the range 1.0550-1.0700.
Dollar-Won (1247) continues to trade sideways. Dollar-Rupee has opend at 48.9375/9475.
3M USD LIBOR was set at 0.32% which is just 7 bps away from the Fed's Target rate of 0.25%. The TED Spreads have narrowed down to 19 bps which had gone above 450 bps after the Lehman debacle.
The yields on US Treasuries have risen a little after declining over the last several days. The yields on 10Y benchmark Notes were up 4 bps at 3.35%.
11:00 GMT July CA Labour Force
...Expected -20.3K...Previous -44.5K
12:30 GMT Aug US NFP
...Expected - 223K...Previous - 247K
Aug Australia Trade Balance
...Actual A$ -1.56 Bln...Previous A$ -0.54 Bln
E-15 ECB Announcement
...Actual 1.00%...Previous 1.00%
EU Retail Sales
...Actual -0.2%...Previous 0.0%
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