Friday February 4, 2005 - 09:48:13 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 4/2/05
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $46.7 level, virtually unchanged with respect to last two days levels. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial ended the session virtually unchanged and closed shy below of 10.600. In the economic events territory, we saw a decline in the ISM number, from 63 to 59. Check out Latest Forex News section to review overnight economic stories.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.2965 level. The single currency dipped again below the 1.3 level even though we saw a bad ISM number, which reinforces the view that news provide rather volatility than reality. However the move opens the door to a further decline to the 1.2830 region (1.2045-1.3650 50% retracement level), but always after a break of the key 1.2940 area (previous top plus 50% fibo retracement level from 1.2225 – 1.3650). What keeps the situation a tricky one is the fact that CHF (biggest correlated currency to the EUR) did in fact broke some key level to the downside against the USD, but that was not enough readon for the single currency to be dragged lower. Furthermore, today we have the biggest market shaker in economic news : the unemployment report, due at 1:30 PM GMT, and certainly anything can happen, as we all know.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2553. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter moving averages for some time now, with the 20-day crossing down the 50-day.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Neutral. Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8810 level. The pair still trades between the 20 and the 50-day moving averages, and moved less abruptly than its fellow european currencies after the release of the ISM number yesterday. The pair held, and now it is trading well above the 50% retracement level of th previous upleg 1.7745-1.9550, situated around 1.8650, and that level could well act as support for now (with the permission of the NFP release today). It has created a very short-term uptrend which lays around 1.8765 today (starting from jan.17 lows). Pair failed, though, to break above the current downtrend line around 1.89 today, so those are the things to watch, plus indicators, to determine a trigger for the next efficient trade.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8402. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now. Pair is above the 20-day, and it is currently trading between them.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Neutral. Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral.
Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.2025 level. Finally! Broke the 50% fibo retracement level from1.2660 – 1.1280 around 1.1960/1.1975 in a consistent way. Well, both the 200-sma and the prevailing downtrend line of the previous upleg look as the target for the current upmove, which is well supported for now, and we’ll see if we today have a fundamental confirmation at 1:30PM GMT. While above 1.16, pair is in positive tone anyway.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2244. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago. Pair is trading above them both.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral.
Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6885 level. After breaking the uptrend channel and proving itself unable to regain it, pair is exposed to further weakness with initial support found around 0.6850.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6818 today. We have a bearish cross from the 2 moving averages.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
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