Sunday May 23, 2004 - 10:12:59 GMT
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Daily view for USDCHF May 24th 2004Price: 1.2840
Resistance: 1.2840 ... 1.2865 ... 1.2915 ... 1.2950
Support....: 1.2790 ... 1.2770 ... 1.2745 ... 1.2717
Early trading may reach 1.2840 but we would expect a pullback from there
The firm recovery from the 1.2717 low on Friday is encouraging since it causes the prior bearish wave structure to look strained. However, we feel we may have to wait for strength with resistance at 1.2840 look likely to cuase a pullback. However, while this pullback remains above 1.2745-70 we feel a break above 1.2840 is on the cards with the next move higher likely to reach the 1.3015 level. Further resistance is at 1.3070.
Friday's weakness was not too encouraging for a bearish stance. However, no break higher has been seen and until this occurs resistance at 1.2840 should cause a move lower. Supports in this decline are at 1.2745-70 and a break of the lower area is needed to generate a stronger test of Friday's 1.2717 low and last week's low at 1.2698. Below the latter causes follow-through to 1.2665 and probably 1.2585-00.
Elliott Wave Comment:
Failure for price to break lower yesterday is concerning and is beginning to make the decline from 1.3226 to 1.2698 like a three-wave move. This cuases us to review the entire rally from 1.2140 and on confirmation we shall post the revised count early next week. The new count will be valid on a break above the 1.3085 peak although resistance at 1.2935 is also important. Should these breaks be seen the minimum target is 1.3370.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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