Thursday September 10, 2009 - 03:33:37 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 10-Sep-2009 - 0328 GMT
Dow and Nasdaq rose 0.53% and 1.11% respectively led by industrial and financial stocks on assurance by the Fed that the economy is stabilising. There's, however, a lurking danger of consumer spending (which constitutes close to 70% of US' economy) not picking up though there are expectation that consumer spending might rise this month owing mainly to the "cash for clunkers" program.
The Asian indices are trading higher except Shanghai (2923.76) which is trading lower by 0.76%. Nikkei (10,452.51) and Hang Seng (21,137.23) are up over 1% each. The Sensex (16183.55) closed yet higher today. It faces a channel Resistance near 16250 on the weekly chart and can turn very bullish beyond this level. To see the channel Resistance, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/sensexcandle.shtml#candle
Crude (71.64) has fallen from yesterday's high of 72.52. Resistance is seen in the region 72.50-73.00. If the current upside momentum continues a break above this Resistance region (72.50-73.00) might see a rise towards 75 in the coming days. The US crude inventory data is due today.
Gold (993.10) failed to close above 1000 once again though it broke above 1000 in the intraday trades for the second consecutive day. As mentioned earlier Trendline Resistance is seen at 1010. On the downside Support is seen at 970. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
Some legitimate profit-taking is likely for the Euro and Aussie now. The Euro (1.4559) has an important Resistance at 1.46 and the Aussie (0.8595) had risen to near 0.8670 yesterday, but might shed some gains today. The overall uptrend remains intact however. Dollar-Yen (92.10) fell to 91.61 yesterday, but has bounced back a bit instead of triggering Stop-Loss selling. The overall trend remains bearish, though, with Resistance at 93.30. Sentiment is still largely Dollar-negative.
The Pound (1.6540) has moved up over the last week or so, piggy-backing on the anti-Dollar sentiment. The EUR-GBP Cross (0.8805) might come off a bit, given the presence of Resistance between 0.8820-40. Interest rates are expected to remain steady at the BOE meet today. Dollar-Swiss (1.0408) has lost further ground in the meanwhile, mirroring the rise in Euro-Dollar. The Swissy has a strengthening bias against the Euro as well, although there is a Support at 1.5125 for the EUR-CHF Cross, which currently trades near 1.5157.
Dollar-Won trades near 1227, up slightly from yesterday's low near 1221. The overall trend is bearish, with test of 1215 a possibility. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 48.50 yesterday. Look for a range of 48.40-60 today. The 1-week and 1-mth NDFs trade near 48.34/39 and 48.45/50 respectively.
3M USD LIBOR was set at 0.30%. The Treasuries have remained flat. The 10Y benchmark yields were quoted at 3.48%.
Bank of England and Bank of Canada are scheduled to announce the key interest rate. The expectations are of unchanged interest rate at 0.50% and 0.25% for UK and Canada respectively.
Aug Australia Labour Force
...Actual -27.1K...Previous 33.6K
11:00 GMT BOE Mtg
...Expected 0.50%...Previous 0.50%
13:00 GMT BoC Meeting
...Expected 0.25%...Previous 0.25%
12:30 GMT US July Trade Balance
...Expected $ -26.8 Bln...Previous $ -27.0 Bln
UK Trade Balance
...Actual $ -6.5 Bln...Previous $ -6.5 Bln
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