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Thursday September 10, 2009 - 22:34:43 GMT
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Record Low Interest Rates in U.S. Pressures Dollar

The U.S. Dollar lost ground against all major currencies as record low U.S. interest rates encouraged the selling of the Dollar and the buying of higher yielding assets. Overnight the Dollar firmed until a better than expected U.S. Weekly Initial Claims Report helped put in a top and set off a gradual decline throughout the day. 

 

The Dollar was the recipient of additional selling pressure at about the midsession following a better than expected oil inventory report.  Firm equity markets throughout the U.S. trading session were additional signs that investors were demanding higher yielding currencies. 

 

Record low interest rates in the U.S. helped boost demand for the higher yielding EUR USD.  Euro bulls are beginning to believe that the U.S. may be amongst the slowest nations to move its interest rates higher once the recovery begins.

 

Early this morning the Bank of England voted to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and its quantitative easing program untouched.  Furthermore, the BoE also decided to leave the interest rate it pays on reserve bank deposits unchanged. 

 

Last month the BoE shocked the markets by increasing the amount of funds available for its asset buyback program.  Traders sold off the Pound for about a month as this was a sign that the economy was still in a perilous position. Since the BoE did not ask for additional funding today, investors saw this as a sign that the U.K. economy may be in a position to begin its recovery.

 

The USD CAD lost ground today despite efforts by traders to support this market throughout the day.  Buyers finally threw in the towel after a rally in both equity and energy markets fueled a rally in the Canadian Dollar.  Losses were limited; however, as traders are still expressing concerns that the Bank of Canada may take action to suppress the rise in the Canadian Dollar.  The BoC is concerned that a rapid rise in the value of the Canadian Dollar will have a negative effect on Canadian economic growth.

 

The NZD USD recovered from earlier losses to finish higher. Overnight the Reserve Bank of New Zealand voted to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.5% and also warned that further rate cuts are possible because of the “patchy recovery” taking place.  The firmer equity markets, however, helped turn this market around and erase earlier losses.  The ability to recover from early selling pressure reflects both demand for higher yielding assets and investor confidence in New Zealand’s economy to recover from economic weakness.

 

The RBNZ now believes that additional stimulus may be needed to fight rising unemployment.  News that exports fell by the most in 58 years was evidence that the rapid rise in the currency is hurting foreign demand.  This could limit the economic recovery and slow down the rate of appreciation in the currency.

 

News that Australian employers cut almost twice as many jobs as economists forecast helped to limit gains in the AUD USD early in the trading session, but a late rally in U.S. equity markets helped the Aussie recover and finish higher for the trading session.

 

This bearish news comes on top of a report earlier in the week that Aussie retail sales fell.  Because of the weaker than expected economic reports this, traders are now reducing bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike interest rates in October. This could limit gains.  This market is likely to break once the U.S. stock markets begin to show signs of weakness.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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