Friday September 11, 2009 - 03:42:41 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 11-Sep-2009 - 0340 GMT
Dow (9627.48) and Nasdaq (2084.02) rose 0.84% and 1.15% respectively as the stocks extend the gains to 5 days after weekly jobless claims data released yesterday showed that the worst might be over. The sentiments were further buoyed by the promiusing forecasts from Procter & Gamble.
The Asian indices are trading mixed. Nikkei (10465.86) is down 0.45% on appreciation in Yen which hurt the exporters. The Japanese economy grew at a pace of 2.3% annually for the 2nd quarter '09. The expectations were of a 3.7% annualised growth rate reported last month. Shanghai (2954.84) is trading higher 1%. The Sensex (16216.86) had risen above the channel yesterday, but has closed at the top of the channel. It had recorded a high of 16434.77 yesterday and a weekly close above the 16250 mark would alleviate the doubt of channel Resistance holding.
Crude (72.26) has risen above 72 following the US Crude inventory data that showed a decline of 5.9 million barrels which was better than expected (1.8 million barrels). Resistance is seen at 73.50 a break above which might see 75 in the coming days. The OPEC meet in Vienna left the output unchanged at 24.845 million barrels per day.
After recording the week's low of 982.20, Gold (999.40) closed almost flat yesterday at 995.70. It is consolidating above 980 for the last one week. As mentioned earlier Resistance is seen at 1010. This week's close today might play a crucial role in determining the futher direction of move in the coming weeks.
Euro and Aussie has risen from their respective lows of 1.4503 and 0.8545 and keeping their uptrend intact. Euro (1.4609) might rise towards 1.4700 today. Aussie (0.8647) is trading near the significant Resistance region 0.8650-70 a break above which might see a rise towards 0.8750-0.8800 during the day. Dollar-Yen (91.40) continue to remain bearish and might test the Support at 91.00 today.
The Pound (1.6694) is looking strong on its upmove and might see a rise towards 1.6750-6800 with Support in the region 1.6600-6580. Swiss (1.0372) is trading lower and might see 1.03 on the downside in the coming days.
Dollar-Won continues to remain bearish and is trading near 1218. Dollar-Ruppee has opened at 48.43/45.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.30%. The yields on longer term Treasuries have fallen sharply. The 10Y benchmark yields fell 11 bps to quote at 3.36%. The danger of double top on treasury yields still lurks strong. To see the chart, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00
The BoE and BoC have kept the interest rates unchanged yesterday at 0.50% and 0.25% respectively.
00:30 GMT JP GDP Q2'09 (Pre)
...Actual 0.6%...Previous 0.9%
12:00 GMT EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal Q1 '09 (2nd)
...Previous EUR -42.4 bln
12:00 GMT EU EA (16) Bal of Trade in services (2nd)
...Previous EUR 4.2 bln
12:00 GMT EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal as % of GDP (2nd)
Aug Australia Labour Force
...Actual -27.1K...Previous 33.6K
...Actual 0.50%...Previous 0.50%
...Actual 0.25%...Previous 0.25%
US July Trade Balance
...Actual $ -32.0 Bln...Previous $ -27.5 Bln
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