Friday September 11, 2009 - 12:15:19 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 10-Sep-2009 - 1211 GMT
USD-CHF @ 1.0361/64...Bearish
R: 1.0420-45 / 1.0508-13 / 1.0550
S: 1.0370-50 / 1.0294 / 1.0258
After rising slightly and recording the day's high of 1.0386, Swiss has fallen and is once again trading in the Support region 1.0370-50. As no significant move on either direction was not seen during the day, our view on the pair continues to remain the same. If it continues to trade lower a break below 1.0350 might see a downmove towards 1.0300-1.0280 in the US session.
Resistance is seen at 1.0420 and we expect it to hold in the US session as any significant upmove is not looking likely now. Also the failure to sustain its upmove during the day is keeping up the bearish sentiment intact.
GBP-USD @ 1.6709/12...Resistance zone 1.67-68
R: 1.6750 / 1.6798 / 1.6956
S: 1.6649 / 1.6585 / 1.6558
Cable has risen towards 1.6742 during the day and then dipped towards 1.6656. Still uncertain whether the danger of S-H-S on the weekly has subsided. If it does, the pair could be bullish for 1.70-71 over the next couple of weeks; but if the S-H-S is confirmed, the pair could be headed for a fall towards 1.59 over the next several days. Possibly, by next week, things would be clearer where is the Cable headed.
AUD-USD @ 0.8643/48...Support at 21-MA on the 4-hr chart
R: 0.8650-70 / 0.8711 / 0.8801
S: 0.8620-10 / 0.8550-35 / 0.8513
The Resistance region 0.8650-70 mentioned earlier held during the day and Aussie is trading down below this Resistance region in range of 0.8615-55. The 21-MA on the 4-hr chart (currently at 0.8614) is giving a good Support for sometime. With this Support at the 21-MA on the 4-hr chart and lack of downside momentum, the chances of a break above the Resistance region 0.8650-70 and a rise towards 0.8750-0.8800 is looking good in the coming sessions.
Any strong move on the downside is not looking likely now and we might expect Aussie to trade above 0.8600. However, a break below 0.8600 might see a downmove towards 0.8550-30.
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