FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Interest Rate Outlook for September 11, 2009
Central Bank Policy Outlook -- Key Interest Rates
Global Interest Rates
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Upcoming Central Bank Meetings -- Monetary Profiles
GVI Forex Policy Outlook
No rate change. Quantitative Ease
Rates near floor; Quantitative Ease
No rate change. Quantitative Ease
No change. End 2009 hike?
No rate change. Quantitative Ease
No rate change. Steady policy seen
BOC to hold rates unch until mid-2010
No rate change. Bias lower rates.
GVI BOJ Policy
BANK OF JAPAN Policy Objective: The Bank of Japan Law states that the Bank's monetary policy should be "aimed at, through the pursuit of price stability, contributing to the sound development of the national economy."
The chart above shows year/year core nationwide CPI and the reported BOJ goal of between 0% and 2% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current BOJ overnight rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Japanese interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Japanese overnight rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
GVI Swiss National Bank Policy Preview
SWISS NATIONAL BANK Policy Objective: The National Bank equates price stability with a rise in the national consumer price index (CPI) of less than 2% per annum. In so doing, it takes account of the fact that not every price movement is necessarily inflationary. Furthermore, it believes that inflation cannot be measured accurately. Measurement problems arise, for example, when the quality of goods and services improves. Such changes are not properly accounted for in the CPI; as a result, inflation, as measured by the CPI, will be slightly overstated.
The chart above shows year/year CPI and the Swiss goal of less than 2% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current three-month Euro-Swiss target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Swiss interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Swiss three-month Euro-swiss rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
GVI U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Policy and Economic Profiles
FEDERAL RESERVE Policy Objective: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.
U.S. Economic Profile in Charts
The chart above shows year/year core PCE for the U.S. relative to its its reported "comfort zone for this key price index. Headline and Core CPI figures are also shown.
The above monthly U.S. employment chart is included because its the most closely followed data release each month, and because one of the objectives of the Fed is to maximize employment.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current Fed funds target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel U.S. interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the U.S. Fed Funds rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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