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Monday September 14, 2009 - 03:42:52 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 14-Sep-2009 - 0340 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The Dow (9605.41) closed 1% higher last week. The trend looks bullish with strong Support at 9000. A host of important data releases this week could spell the direction of the stocks for the rest of the month.

The Nikkei (10186.63) has dipped 2.47% today on stronger Yen. Last week the Nikkei rose 2.5% and the stregth in Yen is likely to keep the equities pressured. However, there's important Support at 9900-10000 this week. The Hang Seng and the Straits are also trading lower by 1% today. The Shanghai (3004.31) has on the other hand has risen beyond 3000 today. It may face Resistance near 3050 (the 50% retracement of the recent fall from 3468 to 2639).

The Sensex (16264.30) has risen 3.67% last week and closed below the important channel Resistance near 16350 on the weely charts. A break past the Resistance this week could make it very bullish. But for today, we shall have to see whether it follows the Shanghai or the Nikkei. To see the chart of Sensex, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/sensexcandle.shtml#candle

COMMODITIES
Crude (68.41) fell sharply on Friday from the high of 72.90 following the concern over energy demand. Significant Support is seen at 68, a break below which might pull it down towards 65-63 in the coming days.

Gold (1003.30) closed above 1000 on Friday and is continuing to trade above 1000. Resistance is seen at 1015 a break above which might take it up towards the next significant Resistance seen at 1025. To see the Resistances on the Gold graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/goldcandle.shtml#candle


CURRENCIES
The Yen's strength is the main story today. It is trading near 90.42. The USD-JPY low today has been 90.20. If this Support is broken, a further decline towards 88.50 would be at hand. The previous low is 87.15 seen in Jan-09. The Yen's strength is pulling the Euro-Yen (131.50) and Euro-Dollar (1.4545) down. The Aussie (0.8571) has also come off a bit from last week's high near 0.8680 and may ease further this week.

Needless to say, the Pound (1.6617) has dipped today, trading well below Friday's high near 1.6641. Dollar-Swiss (1.0395) has bounced a bit from Friday's low near 1.0340. The Korean Won is slightly weaker near 1226. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 48.47 on Friday. Expect a range of 48.35-55 today.


INTEREST RATES
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.30% in Friday as compared to 0.45% a month earlier. The yields on US Treasuries have fallen last week. The 10Y yields have dipped 9 bps. Overall the yields have been falling over the last 4 weeks. The 10Y yields have corrected from 3.76% on 7th Aug to 3.33% today. There are chances of double top on the daily chart of 10Y benchmark yields. To see the chart, click on:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00 Lower yields on US Treasuries are beneficial to the home loan borrowers as their interest payments are linked to the 10Y benchmark yields.

Last week the BoE and BoC have kept the key interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and 0.25% respectively.

DATA TODAY
09:00 GMT EU Aug IND Prodn (MoM)
...Expected -0.3%...Previous -0.6%

FRIDAY'S DATA
JP GDP Q2'09 (Pre)
...Actual 0.6%...Previous 0.9%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/jpgdp.shtml

EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal Q1 '09 (2nd)
...Actual EUR -21.5 bln...Previous EUR -42.4 bln

EU EA (16) Bal of Trade in services (2nd)
...Actual EUR 8.8 bln...Previous EUR 0.8 bln

EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal as % of GDP (2nd)
...Actual -1.0%...Previous -1.9%

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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