Weaker Dollar Continues to Drive Risky Assets Higher
The U.S. Dollar closed lower against most major currencies
this afternoon as investor demand for higher yields drove up risky assets.The strong rally continued in the equity
markets boosted by yesterdayâ€™s favorable comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke
and todayâ€™s positive words from investor Warren Buffett.Gold also surged to the upside on the
prospect of a long-term weaker Dollar.
Despite economic reports showing that the U.S. economy is recovering at a
faster pace than the Euro Zone, investors continued to drive the EUR USD higher
for the year.Traders have become
comfortable with the thought that in spite of the improving economy, the Fed is
likely to keep interest rates at historically low levels for some time to
come.With the U.S. posting the worldâ€™s lowest
interest rates, continue to look for strength in the Euro.
Technically, the market reached a new high for the year
while breaking out over a major retracement level at 1.4623.Taking out the December 2008 top at 1.4719
was also a sign of strength.The new
upside target is 1.4866.The swing chart
indicates that the trend is up as long as support holds at 1.4045.
Todayâ€™s weakness in the GBP USD reflected the floundering
economy.Earlier in the week it was
concerns over a squeeze in the U.K.
mortgage rates having a negative effect on the real estate market.Today it was a poor unemployment report
encouraging the sellers.Losses were
most likely limited by the demand for higher risk assets.Technically, this market is struggling at a
retracement zone at 1.6577 to 1.6687.Fundamentally, this market is likely to remain weak until the U.K.
economy begins to show consistent improvement and the Bank of England relaxes
its asset-buyback program.
The USD JPY finished lower but heavy selling pressure seems
to be subsiding as traders appear to be defending the .9000 level.Oversold conditions could also be providing
support by attracting buyers.The Bank
of Japan is also a threat to the strength in the Yen.It has in the past used verbal intervention
to push down a rapidly rising Yen.This
action usually takes place when it feels the price level in the Yen will begin
to have a negative impact on the Japanese economy.There is always a fear that exports will
suffer if the Yen gets too high.
The U.S. Dollar continued to get pounded by the Swiss Franc
after breaking out of its 90-day range to the downside.Low interest rates in the U.S. are encouraging Swiss
investors to bring their money back home.The strong rise in gold has also been putting pressure on the USD CHF.
Strong rallies in equity and energy markets have helped
trigger a resumption of the downtrend in the USD CAD.Todayâ€™s downside action took out the last
swing bottom at 1.0673, indicating further weakness.The building downside momentum has set up
this market for a test of the low for the year at 1.0631.The trend will not change to up unless the
last main top at 1.0925 is violated.
The Australian Dollar made a new high for the year, boosted
by the strong demand for higher yielding assets.The surge in U.S.
equity markets and the low interest rates in the U.S. helped attract strong buying
power.Aussie traders seemed to have
forgotten about the economy and instead have returned their focus to getting
the best return on their investment.Major support has moved up to .8156.The trend will change to down if this price level is violated.
Demand for higher yields also gave the NZD USD a boost on
Wednesday.Based on the main range of
.8215 to .4892, todayâ€™s action solidified the strong uptrend by holding above
major retracement levels at .6791 and .6946.The charts indicate that barring a complete reversal down in global
equity markets, there is plenty of room to the upside.
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