Friday September 18, 2009 - 03:39:31 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 18-Sep-2009 - 0337 GMT
The Dow (9783.92) and the Nasdaq (2126.75) saw some consolidation yesterday and ended flat. The weekly jobless claims declined to 545K last week. The Dow has Resistance near 9850 for the week and so may consolidate below the 9850 for today as well.
Asian indices are trading lower today. Nikkei (10315.41) is down 1.23% as the metals prices declined. The deferral of debt payments by Aiful Corp has also hurt investor sentiments as they now become more wary of financial stocks. Shanghai (3057.35) is down marginally. It has risen past the Resistance at 3050.
The Sensex (16711.11) has Resistance at 17000 and Nifty at 5100. Taking cues from other Asian indices, the Sensex may correct a little today.
Crude (72.05) has fallen from yesterday's high of 73.16 and is now trading just above 72. A break below 72 might see downmove once again towards 70. However if 72 holds, we might see a rise towards 74.00-50 in the coming days.
Gold (1012.40) has fallen from yesterday's high of 1024.70. As mentioned earlier Resistance is seen at 1020 and 1030 which if holds we might see a pull back towards 1000 in the coming days. To see the Resistances on the Gold graph click on the following link:
The Euro (1.4706) has come off slightly from its yesterday's high of 1.4765. However the current uptrend is still intact with Support in the region 1.4630-00. Dollar-Yen (91.28) is trading near the Resistance region 91.30-50. Since the Support region 90.20-00 has held very well this week, today's closing level will have to be watched for as it would play a significant role in the further direction of move for Dollar-Yen. Euro-Yen (134.27) is continuing to trade higher taking support from the rise in EUR-USD.
The Pound (1.6385) has fallen sharply from yesterday's high of 1.6568 and might expect it to test the Support at 1.6300 if it continues to trade lower today. Swiss (1.6309) continues to remain weak and might see a dip towards 1.0220-00 in the coming days. Aussie (0.8694) though has fallen from yesterday's high of 0.8775, is still looking bullish in the long term with immediate Support available in the region 0.8670-50.
Dollar-Won (1186) has broken below 1200 and might see 1160 on the downside in the coming days. Dollar-Rupee has closed near 48.14/16 yesterday. Today's closing will be very crucial for Dollar-Rupee as it would play a very significant role in the further direction of move in the days to come.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The yields on US Treasuries have fallen across the yield curve. The 10Y benchmark yield corrected 9 bps and was quoted at 3.38% while the 2Y yields corrected 6 bps at 0.93%. The 30Y yields (4.16%) has Support at 4.00% while the danger of Double Top on 10Y yield chart increases every time there's a sharp decline. To see the chart, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00
EU Trade Bal
...Actual 6.8 Bln...Previous 2.3 Bln
CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Actual 1.6%...Previous 1.8%
US Aug Housing Starts
...Actual 0.600 Mln...Previous 0.590 Mln
July US Philifed Index
...Actual 14.1...Previous 4.2
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