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Friday September 18, 2009 - 12:33:16 GMT
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Profit-taking, Position Squaring Could Boost U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Dollar is expected to open better this morning.  With little economic data to move the market, profit-taking may dominate the trade today. 


The December Euro could give back some of its gains this week, but should still finish better for the week.  The December Canadian Dollar is still up for the week, but in a position to give up all of its gains.  The December Japanese Yen is in a position to post a closing price reversal top.  Finally, the weakest currency, the December British Pound should close near its low.


Pessimism about the strength of the global economic recovery is weighing on the markets overnight.  This could spillover to the day session which would weaken stocks and higher yielding currencies.  The markets could also begin to see position squaring ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.


Yesterday’s U.S. economic data indicated that the economy was improving.  This news somewhat confirmed earlier comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke that the U.S. recession was likely over. 


The improved economic data along with the oversold U.S. Dollar is beginning to generate chatter amongst traders as to when or if the Dollar will resume its traditional relationship with the economic data.  Some traders are expecting the Dollar to start showing strength on positive economic news.  If the Dollar begins to respond positively to good news then traders should watch for a sharp short-covering rally.


The December Japanese Yen is the market to focus on today.  Despite supportive comments by the Bank of Japan regarding the long-term outlook for the Yen, this currency closed lower yesterday.  The bullish tone may be shifting as good news seems to have been built into the market.  Overbought conditions are also exerting a negative influence on this currency.  Currently, the December Japanese Yen is in a position to reverse the week to down.  If this formation takes place and is confirmed next week then look for the start of a break back to 1.0672 to 1.0570.


Yesterday’s weaker close in the December stock index futures could spillover into today’s trade.  This would put additional downside pressure on the markets.  The expected weakness will not be enough to turn the main trend down, however.  Traders have become used to buying dips so don’t be surprised if early weakness is limited by strong bids. 


If the markets do break and stabilize, don’t look for too much of a rally as traders may have begun to square up positions ahead of the September 23rd FOMC meeting. 


Yesterday’s weak equity markets helped push Treasury futures higher.  Upside action could be limited today and trading could be light ahead of next week’s $112 billion auction and the Fed meeting.


A stronger Dollar may lead to a sell-off in December Gold and Silver.  Although these two markets had a spike to the upside earlier this week, the follow-through rally was weak.  Currently, both precious metals are in positions to erase all of these week’s gains and close lower for the week.


Weaker equity markets and a stronger Dollar could put downside pressure on December Crude Oil today.  Traders still want to see a bigger drawdown on inventories before committee in a big way to the long side.  The best way to describe this market is range bound.  $75.00 remains a major hurdle this market has to overcome.


Watch November Soybeans and December Corn today.  Earlier in the week, both markets rallied on expectations of crop damage from an early frost.  Although most of those gains were erased by subsequent weakness, there is the possibility of fresh buyers emerging ahead of the week-end.



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