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Monday February 7, 2005 - 12:22:17 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Fx-Thoughts for the day....07-02-05....1209 GMT

Euro @ 1.2861/64....Bearish
---------------------------
R: 1.2859-64 / 1.2902 / 1.2946-68
S: 1.2826 / 1.2775-50 / 1.2700
On Friday, we said Euro capitulation would take place below 1.2925. The process seems to have started. A look at the speculative positions in Euro suggests that Euro Longs have been pared to near Square since the beginning of the year, but the market has not gone seriously Short Euro as yet. If the market starts building Net Euro Short positions now, there may be further room for a Euro fall. Levels of 1.25 in a month or two and 1.20 by the middle of the year may not be fanciful. To be sure, there will be an abundance of Euro Sellers should the market move up to 1.2990-3040.

Holding:
EUR 20K Short at 1.3016, TSL 1.2950(up from 1.2900), TP 1.2726. As soon as the market trades 1.2800 hereafter, bring TSL down to 1.2870

Order:
Sell EUR 20K at 1.2890, SL 1.2935, TP 1.2726
Sell EUR 20K at 1.2930, SL 1.2970, TP 1.2726


$-Yen @ 104.09/14....Battle between Bulls/ Bears
------------------------------------------------
R: 104.68 / 104.94 / 105.08-25
S: 104.27-19 / 103.90 / 103.76-63 / 103.51-33
Even though the odds are stacked against them, the Bulls seem to be slowly, but surely, gaining the upper hand and have established 103.90 as a credible Support now. The 3-day and Weekly charts are looking more bullish now than they were earlier and Short positions do not seem to be working well on the Daily either. Although several arguments call for a fall to 103.30, the fact of the matter is that the Dollar is just not retreating. It would not surprise us if the Dollar were to reach up to 105.20 before letting go for a while.

In all probability, we may see a day or two of sideways trading between 103.90 and 104.70. No trades


Euro-Yen @ 133.89/94....Accent on downside
------------------------------------------
R: 134.39-59 / 134.72-87 / 135.14
S: 133.97 / 133.66-42
The Cross rose into the 134.35-45 Resistance region during the day, but does not seem to be able to sustain the rise. Immediate Support at 133.97. A fall below that might re-envigorate Sellers. HOWEVER, there may not be too much of downside available today, with 133.42 being the statistically projected low for the day. Although the accent seems to be on the downside, we do not have any tradeable idea and are content to stay out.

Maybe buying near 133.50 could be considered as a Contrarion trade.




$-Swiss @ 1.2119/24...Target 1.2241
-----------------------------------------
R: 1.2154 / 1.2187 / 1.2234
S: 1.21118-12 / 1.2082 / 1.2033-24
Dollar Bulls seem to be in control and there may be Buyers waiting on dips to the 1.2100-2080 region. An eventual rise to 1.2241, the 200-day MA is what we are looking for.

Orders:
Buy $25K at 1.2160, SL 1.2106, TP 1.2226. As soon as market trades 1.2190 after Entry, bring SL up to 1.2130

Buy $25K at 1.2045, SL 1.1980, TP 1.2226


Cable @ 1.8721/6....Range 1.8620-8900
------------------------------------------
R: 1.8729 / 1.8746-57 / 1.8771-91
S: 1.8651 / 1.8622-12 / 1.8584-63
As mentioned in the morning, there has been a dip towards 1.8665, but that being an important Support, has held and produced a small bounce. The view for the week is for range trade between 1.8620 and 1.8900. BUT, if the 1.8620 Support were to be credibly broken, we could see a structural fall taking place.

EUR-GBP has been falling over the last few days and though it has bounced a bit today, it is likely to be well Resisted in the 0.6887-97 region.




Happy Trading!


 

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