The U.S. Dollar finished the week with a strong rally as
traders reduced their exposure to higher-yielding assets.Global financial system worries encouraged
traders to pare positions.Additional
selling pressure came from position-evening ahead of next weekâ€™s U.S. Fed open
market committee meeting.
The GBP USD was the big loser today as shorts dominated this
currency pair as stories circulated that the Lloyds Banking Group Plc lacked
sufficient capital.Traders reacted
negatively to the news that Lloyds may exit a government program designed to
insure nearly $425 billion of its risky assets.This story helped trigger weakness throughout the Forex markets as
traders returned to the safety of the U.S. Dollar.
The EUR USD started the day firm but finished on the
downside as traders reduced exposure to higher risk assets.The Euro was able to finish the week on the
upside, but todayâ€™s weak close and negative feelings toward the global banking
system may trigger weakness next week or at the least put this currency into a
The Dollar gained ground versus the Japanese Yen this
week.Todayâ€™s strength in the USD JPY
was triggered by comments from the Japanese Finance Minister.He stated that exchange rates should reflect
economic fundamentals.This statement
triggered selling in the Yen which solidified this weekâ€™s technical closing
price reversal.The USD JPY weekly chart
closed higher after a prolonged down move.If this reversal bottom is confirmed next week then look for a
retracement to 93.95.
Mixed equity markets and weaker energy prices helped the USD
CAD gain ground on Friday.With this
market so close to its lowest level for the year, bottom pickers may start to
come in to drive it higher.Furthermore,
the Bank of Canada does not want its currency to rise to a level where it hurts
Canadian exports.The USD CAD could
rally sharply higher if global banking concerns trigger a flight to the U.S.
Less demand for higher risk assets kept selling pressure on
the NZD USD and AUD USD throughout the day.Traders seemed a little hesitant to buy at early levels which could be a
sign that these markets have reached an overbought status.If demand for risky assets continues to drop
then Aussie and Kiwi traders will be forced to look at economic fundamentals,
which could add to the developing weakness.
With negative financial system news infiltrating the Forex
markets today and some currencies at lofty levels, donâ€™t be surprised if the U.S.
Dollar mounts a strong comeback rally next week.Although the U.S. Dollar has been beat up
since Labor Day, traders will return to the Dollar if there is even a hint of
banking or credit market issues.
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Mon 9 July 2018 AA 12:00 EZ- Draghi EU Parliament Testimony Tue 10 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 11 July 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 12 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 13 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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