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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European PMI data hitting 15+ month highs; BOE minutes as the central bank expressed some optimism on its outlook

European Market Update: European PMI data hitting 15+ month highs; BOE minutes as the central bank expressed some optimism on its outlook

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (SP) Spain July Trade Balance: -€3.2B v -€3.5Be
- (FR) French Aug Consumer Spending M/M: -1.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v 1.0%e
- (FR) French Sep Bus Confidence Indicator: 85 v 81e; Own Company Production Outlook: -11 v -8e; Production Outlook Indicator: -16 v -36e
- (FR) French Sept Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 52.5 v 51.4e; PMI Services: 52.2 v 50.2e
- (HU) Hungarian July Retail Trade Y/Y: -6.6 % v -5.0%e
- (GE) German Sep PMI Manufacturing: 49.6 v 50.8e; PMI Services: 52.2v 54.0e
- (TT) Taiwan Aug Export Orders Y/Y: -12.0%% v -7.3%e; Industrial Production Y/Y: -9.6% v -6.0%e
- (EU) Euro-zone Sep PMI Manufacturing: 49.0 v 49.7e; PMI Services: 50.6 v 50.5e; PMI Composite: 50.8 v 51.3e
- (NO) Norwegian Jul Unemployment Rate (AKU) 3.0% v 3.1%e
- (PD) Polish Aug Retail Sales M/M: -4.2% v -3.9%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.6%e
- (PD) Polish Aug Unemployment Rate: 10.8% v 10.8%e
- (UK) Aug BBA Loans for House Purchase: 38.1K v 40.5Ke
- (UK) Bank of England Minutes: Voted unanimous to keep both interest rates and its asset purchase program (APF) unchanged
- (EU) Euro-zone July Industrial New Orders M/M: 2.6% v 2.0%e; Y/Y: -24.3% v -25.9%e
- (SA) South Africa Aug PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: -4.0% v -3.4%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- In equities news overnight: European markets are printing a strong session, holding on and improving to yesterdays positive closing levels. Positive sentiment has flowed over from yesterday's
New York session and ignored yet another negative close out of mainland China. With the continuation of public holidays in Japan, Asian trading volumes and direction have continued to lack a key player. Positive sentiment in Europe was seen specifically in Basic resource and mining names following commentary out of BHP [BHP.AU] CEO Klopper regarding demand and growth in Chinese markets. Financial names led the upward trend on the EuroStoxx50 as press speculation in France that BNP Paribas [BNP.FR] would attempt to begin paying the gov back sooner than expected and that Natixis [KN.FR] would post a Q3 Net positive figure (analyst consensus seeing a negative figure). With supportive comments from German insurance and re-insurance names during a financial conference, the broader sector has maintained a strong positive footing. While European bourses have continued to trade in positive territory, overall volume has remained light with both the CAC and FTSE printing below moving averages. DAX volumes have managed to outperform with solid trading in Infineon [IFX.GE] and Deutsche Telekom [DTE.GE]

-In individual equities: BHP Billiton [BHP.AU] Chairman Kloppers: Global economy is stabilizing; Sees China improving and being major source of commodities demand;
China construction has increase commodity demand. || BNP [BNP.FR] Plans to launch a repayment of €5.1B in government bailout funds ahead of plans, starting payback within months- FT. || Natixis [KN.FR] CEO: To post a profit in Q3 - La Tribune. Note: Current consensus estimates are for a Net Loss of €55M. || Barratt Developments [BDEV.UK] Reports FY09 Pretax Loss £144.1M v Profit £392.3M y/y, Rev £2.3B v £3.6B y/y, announces £720.5M capital raise ( about 75% of market cap). || Redrow [RDW.UK] : Announces £150M (40% of market cap) rights issue through placement of 148.6M new shares; To acquire Harrow Estates. || Air France [AF.FR] CEO says sees break-even in Spring 2010; recovery still not apparent - Les Echos. || Qiagen [QIA.GE] Announces offering of 27.5M in new common shares (about 14% of shares outstanding) to fund purchase of UK's DxS Ltd. || Q-Cells [QCE.GE] Have seen a rise in demand in H2 v H1; Margins remain under pressure. ||

- Speakers: ECB's Nowotny commented that he saw the Euro-Zone economic recovery as being described as an 'L' shaped rather than 'V' shaped ||ECB's Kranjec noted that at the beginning of Sept, there was a small chance of price deflation; Have seen signs that price declines are coming to an end. Inflation in H2 is expected to be more in line with ECB expectations || Czech Central Banker Singer stated that he saw unemployment rising until 2011
|Australia Treasury Sec Henry commented that the economic downturn likely less severe than thought, and that there were signs that the global economy was recovering. The official noted that the jobless rate would not reach forecast peak of 8.5% in 2011 || Philippines Central Banker Tetangco commented that it was too early to implement exit strategies; should continue monetary and fiscal stimulus and any exit should be gradual to allow markets time to adjust || BOE minutes noted that yhe UK's near-term downside economic risks lessened since its August report while its medium term picture remained unchanged. The BOE noted that a large measure of spare capacity remained in its economy even with a potential positive UK Q3 GDP figure. Unemployment would to continue to rise. The BOE did observe a number of positive developments since its Aug report but cautioned that the drag on demand from financial crisis was likely to be long-lasting. Asset price rise could mark start of upward spiral of inflation. Members King and Miles believed that larger QE measures could be justified while the MPC doves believed that no major news undermined the case for change in QE || Russian PM Putin warned of unjustifiable economic optimism and noted that a lack of credit in markets could lead to a new economic downturn || Brazil Treasury Sec commented that China sovereign wealth fund CIC was interested in Brazilian Gov't debt || OECD stated that Gov't bank stakes should not be sold to other banks

- In Currencies: Overall the price action was subdued in currencies during the European session for most pairs. Dealers continued to note the 1.48 digital option expiration set later in the NY morning as the center of its focus. The EUR/USD straddled the level throughout the morning. Dealer chatter also focused that the Fed has started discussions with dealers on using reverse repos to withdraw liquidity. The G20 summit that starts tomorrow is likely to call for plans of an exit strategy for fiscal and monetary measure and this reverse repo would be an obvious start. The question is when the exits would be implemented.


- The GBP firmed in the aftermath of the BOE minutes as the central bank expressed more optimism. The BOE noted that asset price rise; lower interest rate expectations, softer pound currency and Libor could all help nominal spending. The BOE was unanimous in keeping its APF unchanged at the £175B level. GBP/USD testedt above 1.6420 while EUR/GBP probed the 0.90.

- In Fixed Income:
Germany sold €5.6B of the new 5y Bobl and the issue has hardly moved since the auction, with the yield steady at 2.55%. The BoE minutes were similarly uneventful for Gilt markets. With no dissent and no discussion of lowering the deposit rate Gilts were subject to knee-jerk selling but have now recovered most of the lost ground. The 2 year Gilt yield is little changed at 0.86%. Treasuries are weaker across the term structure in Europe with the yield curve subject to some bear steepening. Ahead of the auction, new 5y notes are trading at 2.47% in the when issued market, about 4pbs above cash. In corporates, RBS and BNP Paribas have both launched Euro denominated offerings, with RBS 10y indicated at 190bps over swaps and BNp's 3y covered bonds indicated at 17bps over swaps

- In Energy: Indian Aug Crude Oil Output -2.6% y/y at 655.9K bpd || Seadrill [SDRL.NO] noted that offshore activity was increasing and likely to rise further as the $70/bbl price level was held. The company saw an increase in orders for long term and deep water drilling equipment

- In the papers: London telegraph article noted that a report by Goldman Sachs noted that a 20% decline in the GBP currency over the past year was enough to push the UK's current account into a comfortable and permanent surplus

*** NOTES ***
- Fed reportedly talking to primary dealers about reverse repo operation to withdraw liquidity
- ECB's Nowotny: Euro-Zone economic recovery likely to be 'L' shaped rather than 'V' shaped
- Bank of England Minutes: Voted unanimous to keep both interest rates and its asset purchase program (APF) unchanged
- US Official: President Obama and China's Hu discussed the need for more balanced global growth; Obama and Hu did not discuss issue of US dollar's role as reserve currency
-Brazil Fin Min disagrees with US proposal to rebalance global economy and noted that the plan was obscure
- G20 meeting in Pittsburgh on Thursday and Friday.

***Looking Ahead
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sep 18th: No estimates v -8.6% prior
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Sep FGV Consumer Confidence: No estimates v 110.3 prior
- 7:20 (CA) BoC's Longworth
- 8:00 (NO) Norges Bank Rate Decision: No change expected, current Deposit Rate is 1.25%
- 8:10 (UK) BoE's Barker
- 9:00 (BE) Belgian Sep Business Confidence: No estimates v -18.2 prior
- 9:30 (US) Treasury Sec Geithner appears before House Financial
- 10:30 (US) Weekly oil inventories
- 13:00 (US) Treasury's $40B 5y Note auction
- 14:15 (US) FOMC Rate Decision: No change to current target of 0.25% is expected.

 

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