Tuesday February 8, 2005 - 01:44:22 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 8th February 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2250 ... 1.2265 ... 1.2282 ... 1.2315
Support....: 1.2209 ... 1.2186 ... 1.2154 ... 1.2112
We feel that today should see consolidation with a cap at 1.2265 and floor around 1.2154 - possibly 1.2112
Break of 1.2150 saw the rally continue to the next major resistance at 1.2265. However, although there is a minor risk of a spike to 1.2312 we feel that the greater emphasis today will be lower. Thus only a break above 1.2265 and then 1.2312-17 would imply further immediate gains that should reach 1.2375 at a minimum. Further resistance is found at 1.2408 & 1.2455.
Test of the 1.2265 level appears to have completed this section of the uptrend and we feel that a pullback is likely. We have seen this reach 1.2209 thus far but while price remains below 1.2250 we feel that the greater risk on the day is for a move below 1.2209 and down to the 1.2150-60 support area. This should cause a pullback. While this holds below 1.2210 we feel there is a small chance of seeing a move as low as 1.2112.
Elliott Wave Comments:
8th February 2005
With the break of 1.2150 we have had to review the upward structure. What strikes us first is that the rally from 1.1625 has developed in five waves to the 1.2261-65 level. This would therefore imply that the 1.1886 peak was actually Wave (i) and thus yesterday's high at 1.2261 can be labeled as Wave (a). Thus we look for a correction/consolidation in Wave (b). We note Fibonacci retracement levels at 1.2019 (38.2%) and 1.1944 (50%) but should also observe the pivot support levels at 1.2050 and also 1.1970. Wave (iii) would appear to have a target around 1.2600.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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