Tuesday February 8, 2005 - 09:38:35 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session 8/2/2005
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $45.3 level, slipping further and threatening the $45 support. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in a narrow range, but managed to close above the 10.700 level for the second straight day.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.2765 level. It looks weak at the moment. After breaking the key 1.2940/60 area, it took only 1 session to break the uptrend line one can draw from september, 2004, and the 200-day moving average magnet looks to play a key role for the time being. I don’t rule a real attempt to regain the just-broken trendline, but it definitely looks it won’t be able to do so at the moment. To negate its current (for some time) bearish tone, pair should make a huge comeback and trade above the 50-day moving average, around .13250 today, so USD bulls look much more in control of the situation right now.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2568. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter moving averages for some time now, with the 20-day down the 50-day.Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative. Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral-negative.
Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8555 level. As stated yesterday, it looked like the pair was ready to re-test the support around 1.85. It came close to that level, slipping over 200 pips in a single session yesterday. The only level left (fibonacci terms) for the pair to test (from the previous uptrend, since october, 2004) is the 61.8%, which today coincides with the 200-day moving average, so the magnet could be very strong for the pair to those levels. Also to note the huge sell-off in the pair after loosing the 20-day moving average level just 2 days ago.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8417. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now. Pair is below both of them again.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Negative. Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral-negative.
Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.2215 level. Perfect move. Pair hit the 200-day moving average, and currently is fighting to staty above it, but I think some pause is needed before the next move unfolds, and the clear break of this very good magnet level, which has proved itself once again a very important level to keep an eye when thinking of targets for any particular move. The 20-day moving average could well be the support for the current uptrend for the USD, and trading around it should yield some for now.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2228. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago. Pair is trading above them both.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral-bullish.
Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6875 level. The 0.6850 support level is holding so far, and not much more can be added to this pair as of now. Both european currencies are weak at the moment, but if GBP proves to be the weakest, it would prove the current support a very tough one for the coming months.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6821 today. We have a bearish cross from the 2 moving averages.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
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