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Thursday September 24, 2009 - 10:19:46 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: G20 focus appeared to be on global imbalances; BOE would not mind a weak GBP; German IFO data better, but not as strong as forecast

Today 05:59am EST/09:59am GMT
European Market Update: G20 focus appeared to be on global imbalances; BOE would not mind a weak GBP; German IFO data better, but not as strong as forecast


- (TT) Taiwan Central bank leaves benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.25%; as expected

- (IC) Icelandic Sedlabanki left its key interest rate unchanged at 12.00%; but lowered its overnight lending rate by 150bps to 14.5%

- (SW) Swedish Sep Consumer Confidence: 5.6 v 6.0e, Economic Tendency Survey: 91.0 v 90.5e; Manufacturing Confidence: -20 v -15e

- (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserves: $411.7B v $410.9B prior

- (SW) Swedish Aug PPI M/M: -0.9% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.5%e

- (NV) Netherlands Q2 Final Q/Q: -1.1% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: -5.4% v -5.1%e

- (NV) Netherlands Sep Producer Confidence: -9.8 v -7.3e

- (NV) Netherlands July Industrial Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -10.3% v -10.9%e

- (GE) German IFO- Business Climate: 91.3 v 92.0e; Current Assessment: 87.0 v 87.7e; Expectations: 95.7 v 96.6e

- (IT) Italian Jul Total Trade Balance: €4.1B3.6Be v € 3.6Be; Trade balance EU: €2.4B v €2.0Be

- (HK) Hong Kong Aug Trade Balance (HKD): -21.8B v -20.0Be; Imports Y/Y: -9.8% v -9.4%e; Exports Y/Y:-13.9% v -12.6%e


- In equities news overnight: European bourses opened to a heavy tone, continuing yesterday's negative equity trend. This path followed the US equity sell off in the late NY afternoon that saw the release of the FOMC rate decision, and more significantly the FOMC meetings. Ex-Japan (which returned from a 3-day public holiday) Asia traded broadly negative. China Metallurgical [1618.HK], in its debut H share listing, continued its bearish Shanghai trend and finished the session down, at HK$5.61/share. HSBC analyst comments on Asian equity trading, noting that recent run-ups are now more feed by fear of 'missing out' rather than fundamentals added a further bearish theme to the Euro open. In first trades, banks, industrials and airlines were leading lagers in addition to some earnings related losses out of H&M [HMB.SW], cautious comments out of 3i [III.UK] and the London Stock Exchange [LSE.UK]. Equity trading ranges were not supported by German IFO figures reading below expectation at 91.3, along with IFO commentary questioning the sustainability of the current upturn. Equities, however, recovered off their lows by 4:45EST on the back of German government comments, coming from Chancellor Merkel and Fin Min Stienbruck pressing that global imbalances and exchange rates will be discussed at the upcoming G20 meeting. Volumes have remained slightly light through the European morning, turnovers are narrowly below moving averages

-In individual equities: H&M [HMB.SW] Reports Q3 Net SEK 3.5B v SEK3.5Be, Rev SEK27.6B v SEK24.4Be; Aug SSS -11%. Q3 GM at 61.6% v 60%e. || 3i [III.UK] Reports 5 Month investments at £155M v £622M y/y, Realizations at £448M v £560M y/y. || LSE [LSE.UK] Reports 5 Month SETS Daily Traded Value -43% y/y at 4.6B. || SongBird [SBDB.UK] Announces £1.03B capital raise (about 7 times market cap). || National Express [NEX.UK] The Cosmen Family plans to back the company's rights offering - London Telegraph. The company's board demanded the rights issue commitment before allowing the Cosmens and their bidding partner, CVC, to conduct due diligence for their £765M offer. || E.on [EOAN.GE] Reportedly discussing sale of sale of high-voltage power unit to Dutch utility. Sale to Dutch based Tennet would be part of ongoing antitrust probe settlement. || ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE] Reiterates cost savings targets for 2011; Reiterates FY09 targets. Reiterates view that group will take €840M in charges in 2009. || Suedzucker [SZU.GE] Targeting FY09/10 Revenue levels at 2008 levels; FY09/10 Op profit seen at approx €400M (€412Me) -presentation slides. ||

- Speakers: BoE's King reiterated that the decline in GBP currency would help UK economy rebalance. Radical change was needed in its banking sector and that it would take considerable time to repair bank balance sheets || IMF's Strauss Kahn commented that the IMF to raise its economic forecasts but growth would not reach pre crisis levels. He noted that the greatest risk at this time was the withdrawal of stimulus measures too fast and that they should be maintained until increase in joblessness was over || US Bailout inspector Barofsky stated that TARP housing funds would yield no direct return and that the TARP Automotive investments were far from certain || German Bundesbank member Zeitler commented that he saw encouraging signs of economic recovery but current crisis was not over || Japanese Special Currency Advisor Gyohten stated that economic fundamentals are best forces to set currency exchange rates and saw no need to rule out intervention. He did not provides any comment when posed the question if current trading levels of Yen currency was 'misaligned' || German Debt Agency forecasted Q4 funding needs to €59B compared to €76B prelim estimate. The agency cited improvement in economic conditions for the lower supply issue. || (GE) German Fin Min: G20 need to prepare credible exit strategies for stimulus measures. He noted that Germany sought a G20 discussion on global imbalances. Germnay noted that the Chinese Yuan was not convertible and this contributed to part of the current global imbalances. It also sought to discuss the US deficits || IFO's Abberger stated that it was questionable whether economic recovery was sustainable as stimulus effects expire and joblessness rise. He did note that there was no need for ECB to change its interest rates from the current 1.0% level and that the current EUR currency level was not at problem levels for companies

- In Currencies: The USD entered the European morning on a firmer footing following the post-FOMC meeting comments. However, its performance waned as the session wore on as rebalancing theme at the upcoming G20 summit overtook the data releases. Thus USD continued to remain the favored carry trade funding currency at this time. Following comments from the German Fin Min Steinbrueck, the USD seemed to have lost its earlier momentum. The German IFO survey for Sept came in at 91.3 for its sixth straight MoM rise but missed market expectations. The EUR/USD tested 1.4710 ahead of the European morning but drifted up towards 1.4780 as the NY morning approached. IFO member noted that current euro currency level did not seem to be a problem also seemed to aid sentiment.

- The GBP currency was broadly weaker against the major pairs following comments from BoE's King that a decline in GBP currency would help UK economy rebalance. The GBP/USD fell almost 200 pips to test below the 1.62 handle. EUR/GBP at its highest levels since eary April above the 0.9120 area.

- The JPY was firmer against the majors in the session. The end of September continues to highlight the repatriation theme as dealers focus on the fiscal half-year end in Japan. Japanese Special Currency Advisor Gyohten commented that economic fundamentals were the best forces to set currency rates and provided no comment regarding current trading levels of Yen as 'misaligned'. The USD/JPY was again approaching the lower portion of the 90 handle where alleged option barriers are said to lurk. The USD sell stops building below could be quite substantial if not 'official' bids are defending the 90 handle.

- In Fixed Income: Having opened bid, European Government bonds are holing onto modest gains in a follow though from yesterdays FOMC induced rally in Treasuries, with Bund and Gilt yield curves steeper on better buying in the short end . The German debt agency also announced that it would now sell €59B in debt in the fourth quarter, a reduction from the original estimate of €76B as a result of improved economic conditions. In corporate, Dow component American Express launched a sterling denominated 5y with price talk at 270bps over Gilts, with Lagardere offering €1B in fives at 220bps/swaps

- In the papers: NY Post commented on the Cadbury takeover. Kraft is behind schedule to secure bid financing

- Article noted that Kraft was not very far along in lining up financing for its unsolicited $16B bid for Cadbury, despite having approached tthe UK company nearly a month ago and Kraft is only now asking banks for their best offers

- Article noted that usually at this stage in the process, the company would normally be expected to have a deal and be seeking better terms

*** NOTES ***

- Pittsburgh G20 summit starts today and continues into Friday

- IMF: greatest risk at this time was the withdrawal of stimulus measures too fast

- German IFO data better, but not as strong as forecast

- BoE's King that a decline in GBP currency would help UK economy rebalance.

- FOMC message subject to different interpretations.

-RBA Financial Stability Review: Loan losses might rise further. Set backs cannot be ruled out.

***Looking Ahead

- (CZ) Czech Central Bank Rate Decision: No change expected, current Repo Rate is 1.25%

- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Unemployment Rate: *.0%e v 8.0% prior

- 8:15 (UK) BoE's Dale

- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Sep 19th: 550Ke v 545K prior, Continuing claims w/e Sept 12th: 6.183Me v 6.23M prior

- 9:00 (US) Jul RPX Composite 28dy Y/Y: No estimates v -14.61% prior, RPX Composite 28dy Index: No estimates v 197.04

- 9:30 (BR) Brazil Aug Current Account: -$1.04Be v -$1.67B prior

- 9:30 (US) Treasury's Allison

- 10:00 (US) Aug Existing Home Sales: 5.35Me v 5.24M prior, M/M: 2.1%e v 7.2% prior

- 10:30 (IS) Israeli Base Rate Decision: No change expected, current rate is 0.75%

- 10:30 (US) Fed's Evans

- 12:00 (FR) French Aug Total Jobseekers: 2.55M v 2.54M prior, Net change : 25.0Ke v 10.7K prior

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell C$1B in 5y Notes

- 13:00 (US) Treasury's $29B 7y Note Auction

- 13:00 (EU) ECB's Stark

- 15:00 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate bonds

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