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Thursday September 24, 2009 - 12:46:01 GMT
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Speculative Buying Drives Japanese Yen Up Overnight

The Group of 20 meeting begins today.  Among the topics which may be discussed include the possible trade war brewing between the U.S. and China, the Dollar’s value as a reserve currency and position limits on financial market speculation.


The Fed FOMC left interest rates at near historically low levels while deciding it was too early to pull out of is current stimulus plans.  The Fed also said the economy was improving especially in the housing and financial markets.  The FOMC also decided to slow down its debt buying plan by extending its program to purchase mortgage-backed securities into the first quarter of 2010.


The U.S. Dollar turned an early weak session into a gain by the close of the day.  The Dollar was trading lower when the Fed announced it would keep pressure on interest rates.  This news triggered a spike up in foreign currency markets, but by the end of the day, the Dollar recovered, reversing the day in most Forex pairs.


Overnight the U.S. Dollar is trading mixed against most major currencies.  There does seem to be some interest in the long side of the higher yielding December Euro, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.  The December Japanese Yen is also posting strong gains while the December British Pound remains in a down trend.


The December Japanese Yen is trading stronger versus the Dollar on speculation that Japanese investors are repatriating funds before the end of the first half of its fiscal year.  Early in the trading session, it was reported that Japan’s exports fell for an 11th month in August.  This may be cause for concern by the Japanese government as it has expressed some worry in the past that a rapidly rising Yen would have a negative effect on Japanese exports. 


Technically, the December Japanese Yen is in a position to post a secondary lower top which would be a strong indication that last week’s high at 1.1104 could become a major resistance point.  The daily chart also indicates that the main trend will turn to down when 1.0812 is violated.


The December British Pound is under pressure this morning following comments from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King.  Mr. King said to The Journal that significant weakness in the British Pound “will be helpful” to rebalance the U.K. economy by increasing exports. 


The current chart formation suggests that the December British Pound has enough downside momentum to challenge the last two main bottoms at 1.6133 and 1.6112.  The main trend is likely to remain under pressure.  A rally through 1.6467 will turn the main trend to up.


U.S. equity markets reversed course late in the trading session yesterday to close lower.  The sell-off continued overnight, confirming yesterday’s closing price reversal top.  A failure to reach a new high today could be a sign that the indices are topping.  This will be more apparent on Friday if the markets manage to close lower for the week.  The daily chart suggests that a break through 1051.50 will turn the December E-mini S&P 500 trend to down.


U.S. Treasury futures are called mixed to lower this morning.  Yesterday the bonds and notes reacted favorably to the Fed’s announcement to extend its asset buyback program.  This should keep downward pressure on interest rates.  The current chart formation suggests these markets are likely to remain rangebound for some time.


December Gold is also trading mixed.  Gold traders will be taking direction from the Dollar today and at this time its performance is mixed against most major currencies.  Technically, gold made a secondary lower top and diverged from the Dollar.  This could be an indication of impending weakness.  A break through 993.00 could help accelerate a break to the downside.


Yesterday’s increase in oil inventories and less demand for higher risk assets could weigh on the energy complex today.  The supply and demand situation continues to exert the biggest influence on crude oil and gasoline.  A stronger Dollar may add to the downside pressure.



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