Friday September 25, 2009 - 03:41:24 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 25-Sep-2009 - 0336 GMT
The Dow (9707.44) and the Nasdaq (2107.61) dipped 0.42% and 1.12% respectively following a surprise drop in home sales last month. Technically, the Resistance at 9900 on Dow held. There's Support 9680 levels on Dow and if this were to break, it may come down near 9300 over the next few days.
Some updates from the G-20 Meet:
Geithner says G-20 consensus forming on cutting export led growth reliance.
Group of 8 replaced by G-20 as main economic forum.
G-20 poised to crack down on banker's pay, increase policy co-ordination.
The Asian indices are all in red. The Nikkei (10239.05) has crashed 2.89% after closing 1.67% higher yesterday. It has Support near the current level both on the weekly and the daily charts. To see the chart, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nikkeicandle.shtml#candle
The Shanghai (2838.98) is down 0.51% and may come down near 2500 if the Support at 2750 breaks. The Sensex (16781.43) rose yesterday during the closing hours after trading lower for significant part of the day. The Resistance at 17000 has been holding thorugh the week.
Crude (66.31) fell sharpy for the second consecutive day following the weak US home sales data. As mentioned earlier we might see a dip towards 65 in the coming days. Support is seen at 65, a break below which might see further dip towards 63-62.50.
Gold (995.50) fell sharply yesterday and closed below 1000 yesterday. If it continues to trade below 1000 we might see a downmove towards 980 where some Support is seen. On the upside as mentioned earlier significant Resistance is seen in the region 1020-30.
Profit-taking and exit of weak Long positions continues on the Euro (1.4657) and the Aussie (0.8650). Of the two, the Aussie seems more likely to withstand drawdowns with intra-day Support seen at 0.8580. The credible Support for the Euro is at 1.4565.
Dollar-Yen (90.58) continues to yo-yo sideways between 90.35-91.60 and has fallen today after an overnight rally to 91.60. Given the failure to rise past 91.70 during the week, the overall picture still remains bearish. The Euro-Yen Cross (132.72) has seen a good corrective fall this week and may find Support at 131.90 soon.
The Pound (1.5950) continues to be the favourite whipping boy in the currency market. It has seen a low near 1.5915 today and is trading well below 1.60 just now. Dollar-Swiss (1.03) has rallied/ bounced a bit in the general pull-back by all the non-Dollar currencies (apart from the Yen), but retains a broad downtrend, with Resistance at 1.0425.
The Asians have not dipped quite as much as the Euro. The Won trades near 1196.60 and remains quite bullish in fact. The Sing Dollar has weakened a little more than the Won with the rate moving up from 1.4076 on Wednesday to 1.4215 today. However, there is Resistance for the Dollar at 1.4259. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 47.9550 yesterday and may continue to trade in the "No Man's Land" between 47.85-48.25. The NDFs are trading above 48.00, between 48.15-35.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.28%. The yields on US Treasuries continued to fall. We continue to reiterate that the 10Y yield chart shows a danger of double top while the 30Y yield has Support at 4.10%. To see the chart of USD Yields, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00
14:00 GMT July US New Home Sales
...Expected 442K...Previous 433K
12:30 GMT Aug US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected 0.3%...Previous 5.1%
July US Existing Home Sales
...Actual 5.10M...Previous 5.24M
Aug GER IFO Business Expectations
...Actual 95.7...Previous 95.0
Aug GER IFO Business Situations
...Actual 87.0...Previous 86.1
Aug GER IFO Business Climate
...Actual 91.3...Previous 90.5
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