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Forex Blog - European Market Update: G20 draft communique indicated that it would avoid premature withdrawal of stimulus

Today 05:57am EST/09:57am GMT

European Market Update: G20 draft communique indicated that it would avoid premature withdrawal of stimulus

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (GE) Oct GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: 4.3 v 3.7 prior

- (FR) French Sep Consumer Confidence Indicator: -36 v -36e

- (FR) French Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.6%e

- 3:00 (CZ) Czech Sep Consumer & Business Confidence: -7.9 v -10.6 prior; Business Confidence: -6.6 v -8.7 prior; Consumer Confidence: -13.0 v -18.3 prior

- (SP) Spanish Aug PPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: % v -5.7%e

- (JP) Japan Aug Convenience Store sales Y/Y: -5.5% v -7.5% prior

- (SW) Swedish Aug Trade Balance (SEK): 6.1B v 1.0Be

- (SW) Swedish Aug Household Lending: 8.0% v 7.9% prior

- (EU) Euro-zone Aug M3 Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.7%e; 3 Month Avg: 3.0% v 3.1%e

- (IT) Italian Jul M/M: -0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.6% v -1.5%e

- (UK) Q2 Final Total Business Investment: -10.2% v -10.4%e; Y/Y: -21.8% v -18.4%e

- (SZ) Swiss KOF trimmed its 2009 GDP view to -3.4% from 3.3% prior and raised its 2010 view to +0.15 from -0.6% prior



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities news overnight: European bourses opened to the positive side, shrugging off losses in both Asia and NY. Equities could not ignore this global sentiment forever, however, and all three major exchanges traded hard following their first crosses. Falling rapidly the CAC and DAX quickly turned negative. A revival of acquisition activity failed to stem this trend as Sara Lee [SLE] ended its long time quest to place its consumer good segment, agreeing to sell the unit to Unilever [UNA.NV]. In sector performance, strong weekly LFL sales out of UK private retailer John Lewis encouraged that sector. A strong Goldman note upgrading their view on 2010 and Q4 2009 oil demand supported a positive trend in EMA oil and gas names. This out performance was, however, outweighed by losses in the industrial sector as steel, car, and aerospace names maintained downside weight. Equity volumes proved strong with only the CAC under performing its average. As a reminder, Germany will be holding its Federal elections this weekend. Due to the complex Mixed Member Proportional Representation (voters select both an individual and party list) system in Germany, final figures and balances regarding Bundestag seats may not be seen until late Sunday.



-In individual equities: Unilever [UNA.NV] Unilever to acquire Sara Lee personal care business for €1.28B. Unilever today announced that it has made a binding offer to acquire the Personal Care business of the Sara Lee Corporation for EUR1.275 billion in cash.The transaction is subject to regulatory approval and consultation with European employee works councils. || ING [INGA.NV] To Sell Australian And New Zealand Insurance Business To ANZ for €1.1B in cash. || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] Says global copper reserves are declining; Plans to cut CAPEX to address market downturn. || SocGen GLE.FR: Investment bank unit had 'excellent' 2009 in terms of recurring activities - La Tribune. || Fortis [FORB.BE] Current capital levels are appropriate; intends to start paying dividend again. || DNB Nor [DNBNOR.NO] Launches guaranteed NOK14B rights issue (16% of market cap); See Core cap ratios rising to 11.3%. || Vedanta [VED.UK] Sesa Goa subsidiary prices $500M bond offer. || Tate & Lyle [TATE.UK] Provides Trading Statement: 6M Op Profit expected to "broadly in line" with last years levels, after fx translation. || AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] Follow up: Firm claims that Brilinta has shown more success in preventing deaths in heart attack patients than industry rival. Firm states that it remains on track for FDA submission for Brilinta by Q4 2009. || EDF [EDF.FR]: States that CEO's terms of office have been extended. || Veolia [VIE.FR] EDF to hold stake in firm at 12-13%; Has no plans for merger -Les Echos. EDF stake was as low as 3.70% at the end of 2008. || Technip [TEC.FR] Awarded a Subsea Contract for the Isabela Development in the Gulf of Mexico. Awarded a lump sum contract by BP Exploration and Production Company for the Isabela project in the Gulf of Mexico. ||



- Speakers: Swiss National Banks Jordan reiterated the SNB stand on its currency and economic outlook. He noted that the economic recovery was likely to be slow and that the SNB would continue to fight appreciation of Swiss Franc against the Euro. Deflationary pressures can not be fully excluded from coming again in the future. The Swiss Franc policy would be calculated into policy rates once the crisis has passed and reiterated that SNB interventions are not competitive devaluations || ECB's Mersch commented that the Global crisis was not over yet, but did concede it was important to think about exit strategies from stimulus measures. Exit strategy would include interest rate increases and absorbing of liquidity. He noted that the central bank could absorb excess liquidity quickly. Too late an exit strategy might risk price stability || S&P report commented on Japan and noted that the new Japanese Government faced hurdles despite GDP recovery. S&P believed that the worst was over for the Japanese economy and that a slow recovery was underway. Domestic demand was expected to remain weak and the yen strong against major currencies. S&P also believed that there is a risk that deflationary pressures will linger. || Norwegian Central Bank Gov Gjedrem stated that its economy had been expanding faster than initially expected || Former Japanese official Sakakibara commented that the new Japanese government and its likely currency view. Mr. Yen stated that the MOF's Fujii might view USD/JPY below 80 as abnormal and that the MOF should consider currency intervention below 85 level. Sakakibara also noted that the US Admin was probably not concerned about USD downtrend at this time. || Swiss Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) released their Sept forecasts. the KOF trimmed its 2009 GDP view to -3.4% from 3.3% prior and raised its 2010 view to +0.15 from -0.6% prior



- In Currencies: The USD consolidated its gains achieved over the past 24 hours. The comments from major central banks said they were winding down extraordinary stimulus measures increased some risk aversion late Thursday that the days of fast flowing liquidity were numbered.

- The GBP was off its Asian session lows as the market aggressively sold the pound believing that the BoE was pursuing a currency policy of benign neglect after King'sd comment on Thursday.

- The JPY was firmer as dealers noted the price action was likely due to Japanese exporters repatriating profits ahead of the fiscal half-year ends on Sept 30th. Fin Min Fujii reiterated opposition to FX market interventions during the Asian morning and opposed intentionally devaluing the Yen. Japan's "Mr. Yen" stated that the MOF's Fujii might view USD/JPY below 80 as abnormal and that the MOF should consider currency intervention below 85 level. Sakakibara also noted that the US Admin was probably not concerned about USD downtrend at this time.

- Goldman Sachs analyst commented that the trend of USD weakness remained intact. Interest rate tightening sequence an ever-growing dynamic and saw possible interest rate increases in China, Poland, Turkey and Chile. Goldman believed that market was seeking a weaker JPY currency



- In Fixed Income: Government bonds are bid in all major European markets as the week draws to a close and focus shifts to the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, where global imbalances and government deficits are likely to feature prominently. Bunds are outperforming Treasuries and Gilts on a relative basis with the German yield curve undergoing some corrective flattening. The 10y Bund yield is back below 3.30%, whilst the lowest reading in euro-one M3 since Jul 1995 (and 10th successive monthly drop) did nothing for the short end, where the 2y Schatz yield is back above 1.20%. Three month Euribor fixed steady at 0.74%. In Treasuries, the 7y auction rounded out another good week for the taxpayer and anyone who stepped up to the plate at this weeks auctions is enjoying a paper profit, with the new 2, 5 and 7 new issues all performing strongly in overnight trade



- In Energy: China stated that it was confident it would have world's major wind capacity. It noted that it had started building phase 2 of emergency oil reserves as its oil reserves were still low compared to international standards. To build Phase 3 of emergency oil reserves when phase 2 was completed. ||Reportedly, the existence of a 2nd Iranian uranium enrichment plant has been revealed ||Analysts at Goldman Sachs commented on EMEA Oil sector and concluded that further upside was warranted on the back of demand recovery supporting Russian names. Goldman raised its Q4 and 2010 oil demand view . The analyst forecasted higher OPEC production coming online, lower stockpile figures to improve sector performance

- See higher oil prices supporting Russian gas market



*** NOTES ***

- G20 now officially replaces the G8 as the concept of the G8 was outmoded, Dealers ponder if the size of new group could prove unwieldy.

- Central banks said they were winding down extraordinary stimulus measures, fears the days of fast flowing liquidity were numbered

- G20 draft: Main themes are anti-protection as Surplus countries to focus on domestic growth, while deficit countries to focus on savings and fiscal consolidation. Financial supervision discussed but no concrete measures. No early stimulus exit until time is right

- Fed's Warsh: Policy normalization is likely before the need becomes obvious; Normalization may need "greater force than customary" - WSJ Op-ed



***Looking Ahead: German elections

- 8:30 (US) Aug Durable Goods Orders: 0.4%e v 5.1% prior, Durables ex Transportation: 1.0%e v 1.1% prior

-10:00 (US) Sep Final U of Michigan Confidence: 70.5e v 70.2 prior

-10:00 (US) Aug New Home Sales: 440Ke v 433k prior, M/M: 1.6%e v 9.6% prior

 

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