The U.S. Dollar overcame early weakness to post a weekly
closing price reversal bottom.This move
doesnâ€™t turn the trend to up, but is a strong indication that the Dollar will
rally for 2 to 3 weeks.A follow-through
rally through .7734 next week is needed to confirm the reversal bottom.The main trend will turn up following a
breakout over .7997.
To recap the market moving events this week, the Fed FOMC
left interest rates at near historically low levels while deciding it was too
early to pull out of is current stimulus plans.The Fed also said the economy was improving especially in the housing
and financial markets.The FOMC also
decided to slow down its debt buying plan by extending its program to purchase
mortgage-backed securities into the first quarter of 2010.
Traders at first drove the Dollar to new lows for the week
on the news, but quickly reversed themselves to the up side before the close on
Wednesday.Thursdayâ€™s action showed more
strength in the Dollar as Wednesdayâ€™s daily chart reversal was confirmed.Friday, U.S. Durable Goods were reported
weaker than expected.The Dollar gave
back some of its gains on the news as this report indicated the U.S.
economic recovery would be slow and labored.
The EUR USD is in a position to form a weekly closing price
reversal top following a close under 1.4710.The main trend on the daily chart is also set to reverse to the down
side on a trade through 1.4611.Based on
the current chart pattern, look for the start of a 2 to 3 week break with
1.4425 the next down side objective.Investors cite sluggishness in the U.S. economy as the main reason why
demand for higher risk assets is set to decline.
The GBP USD is expected to finish near its weekly low.With the main trend down and down side
momentum building, traders should start to anticipate further weakness to at
least 1.5271 over the near term.Most of
this weekâ€™s break was triggered by bearish comments from Bank of England
Governor Mervyn King who stated in an interview that he favored a weaker
The weekly USD CAD chart indicates that a double-bottom may
be forming at 1.6305 and 1.0589.This
formation will be confirmed when the market trades through 1.1124.The main trend on the weekly chart will also
turn up on this move.Based on the main
range of 1.1124 to 1.1723, look for a retracement to 1.1156 to 1.1290.Fundamentally, weaker equity and crude oil
prices should keep the pressure on the Canadian Dollar.The Canadian economy is likely to take a big
hit if crude oil prices continue to weaken.
The USD CHF reached a new low for the year earlier this week
on hopes of a stronger economic recovery in Switzerland.Late in the week, the Dollar began to rally
versus the Swiss Franc.The current
chart formation indicates the possibility of a weekly closing price reversal
bottom.A close over 1.2092 will create
the bottom but a follow-through rally will be needed next week to confirm it.The first upside objective is 1.0603 to
1.0702 if this reversal bottom is confirmed.
The USD JPY is expected to close near the low for the
week.This weekâ€™s strong Yen negated
last weekâ€™s closing price reversal bottom in the USD JPY.The charts now indicate the possibility of a
break to the low for the year at .8711.Repatriation by Japanese exporters triggered the start of the weakness
in the USD JPY, but it was bullish comments by the Japanese Finance Minister
that fueled Fridayâ€™s acceleration to the downside.Look for the Yen to continue to rally next week
as the Japanese government seems to have no intention of intervening.
Demand for higher yielding assets dropped after the Fed FOMC
meeting on September 23rd.The selling
pressure hit the AUD USD harder than the NZD USD and now has the Aussie in a position
to post a weekly closing price reversal top.A close under .8673 forms a weekly reversal.Based on the current weekly range of .8156 to
.8788, look for a correction to .8472 to .8397 over the next 2 to 3 weeks.The New Zealand Dollar broke from the high
for the week, but remained in a position to close higher.
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