Tuesday September 29, 2009 - 03:41:09 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 29-Sep-2009 - 0336 GMT
The Dow (9789.36) and the Nasdaq (2130.74) have risen 1.28% and 1.90% respectively yesterday after falling over 1.5% last week. The corporate takeovers announced by Abott, Xerox, Dell are being seen as positive signs for the revival of the economy. The week ahead has some important data releases lined up. The US GDP Q2 '09 final numbers (tomorrow), NFP, ISM and Personal Income in the later part of the week would proivde direction to the market.
The Asian indices are mostly trading higher (except Shanghai) after falling steeply yesterday. The Nikkei (10,104.68) is seeing a mild correction after yesterday's 2.5% fall. It is trading higher by 0.9%. The Shanghai (2748.77) is trading lower by 0.5% followed by a 2.6% fall yesterday. The Shanghai continues to be in the downtrend, with Support available near 2740.
The Sensex (16693) may trade flat today as it reopens today after a long weekend. The potential losses of yesterday would be made up by positive cues from global stock performances which would keep the index flat. It has Resistance for the week at 17050 and Support at 16400.
Crude (66.92) has risen from last week's low of 65.05 (25-Sep) taking support from the US equities which closed 1.28% higher yesterday. Support is seen at 65 and if Crude continues to trade higher, a break above the Resistance at 67.50 might see a rise once again towards 70 in the coming days.
Gold (990.00) is continuing to trade and closed below 1000 for the third consecutive day yesterday. Support is seen in the region 980-975. As much strength on the downmove is not seen, we expect this Support region to hold and might see a rise above 1000 once again in the coming days. However, a break below 975 might pull it down towards 960.
Most non-Dollar currencies remain strong. The Euro (1.4618) has been finding Support near 1.4585 after having seen a corrective fall yesterday. The Aussie (0.8739) has also recovered after correcting down to 0.8585 yesterday. Dollar-Yen (89.95) had seen a sharp fall to 88.25 yesterday, but might see a bounce towards 90.70-91.20 this week.
The Pound (1.5925) had seen a low near 1.5770 yesterday after having broken below 1.60 on Friday. A small corrective rally towards 1.61 may be seen this week before fresh sales come in. There is UK GDP data release today. The Swiss Franc (1.0320) contiues to trade relatively strong in a sideways range of 1.04 and 1.02.
The Korean Won is strong at 1186.30. By contrast, the Singapore Dollar (1.4189) has given back some of its gains recently but remains strong overall, with Resistance for the Dollar at 1.4235. The Indian Rupee which had closed at 47.97 on Friday, should also do relatively well today.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.28%. The yields on US Treasuries have fallen a little. The 10Y benchmark yield was quoted 2 bp lower at 3.30%.
July US New Home Sales
...Actual 429K...Previous 426K
US Durable Goods Orders
...Actual -2.4%...Previous 4.8%
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