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Tuesday September 29, 2009 - 18:42:56 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (29 September 2009)

The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4525 level and was capped around the $1.4645 level. European Central Bank officials spoke about the economy today with member Constancio noting “There is still great uncertainty regarding the depth and sustainability of a global recovery, which has led some analysts to say it might be slower than is desirable.  The low level of capacity utilization and the moderate salary increases we are seeing place the European economy very far from a situation of overheating that could reignite inflationary pressures.”  ECB member Sramko added the ECB has supplied a “giant amount” of liquidity into financial markets over the past year and noted inflation could become a “serious problem” if excess liquidity is left in the system for too long.  ECB President Trichet reiterated the financial crisis is not over and now is not the time to employ exit strategies.  Eurogroup chairman Juncker expects exit strategies will be employed from 2011.  The Group of Seven will meet in Istanbul this weekend with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.  Eurozone data released today saw the EMU-16 September overall economic sentiment indicator improve to 82.8 from 80.8 in August while September industrial confidence improved to -24 from -25 in August.  Also, September consumer confidence improved to -19 from -22.  In U.S. news, September consumer confidence fell to 53.1 from 54.5, below expectations.  Also, the July S&P/ Case-Shiller home price index was off 13.3% y/y, an improvement from the revised June print of -15.40% y/y.  Dallas Fed President Fisher indicated there is a limit to the “life support” the Fed can provide to the housing market.  Fisher also said he views a greater risk of deflation or disinflation than inflation.  World Bank President Zoellick yesterday  reported the U.S. dollar could lose its status as the dominant reserve currency but noted it will remain a “major currency,” adding the euro is a “respectable alternative if the dollar is weak.”  The FDIC is proposing that banks prepay their deposit fees through 2012.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4445 level.


¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥90.35 level and was supported around the ¥89.60 level.  Traders expect this week’s Bank of Japan Tankan survey of business sentiment will evidence further improvement with the diffusion index for large manufacturers expected around -32 from -48 the previous quarter.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the August core consumer price index off 2.4% y/y, in-line with expectations and the latest evidence of deflation.  Finance minister Fujii verbally intervened again overnight, reporting he would “not rule out” intervention if currency moves are abnormal.  Fujii’s latest comments suggest his yen policy is probably more aligned with the policy that was followed by the previous Aso government and Liberal Democratic Party than previously thought.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.91% to close at ¥10,100.20.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥131.75 level and was supported around the ¥130.70 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥143.95 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥87.25 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar gained ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8230 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8220.  People’s Bank of China reported it will continue its “moderately easy” monetary policy “while highlighting the role of domestic consumption in pushing the economy.”  Chinese financial markets will be closed from 1 October through 8 October for the National Day’s holiday.  Some banks are predicting China will register consumer price inflation growth in November. 

The British pound extended recent gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5990 level and was supported around the $1.5825 level.  Leading City economists met with the Bank of England today and reported the central bank is not planning an imminent move to a Riksbank-style policy mechanism where overnight deposits would be subject to a tax in an attempt to stimulate spending.  BoE policymakers are said to be frustrated with the market’s reaction to BoE Governor King’s statements about sterling last week that encouraged selling pressure.  Data released in the U.K. today saw the CBI retail sales balance climb to +3 from -16 in August.  Also, Q2 GDP data were upwardly revised to -0.6% q/q and confirmed at -5.5% y/y – the worst reading since at least 1965.  Additionally, August net consumer lending grew ₤699 million m/m and August mortgage approvals were up 52,000.  Furthermore, the Q2 current account deficit expanded to -₤11.4 billion.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5720 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.9105 level and was capped around the ₤0.9210 level.



The Swiss franc came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0405 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0310 level.  Data released in Switzerland today saw the August UBS consumption indicator decline to 0.66 from 0.75 in July.  Credit Suisse today reported the Swiss economy will return to growth in 2010.  SNB Vice President Hildebrand reported the SNB will do “whatever it takes” on monetary policy and called on higher buffers for regulatory capital.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0490 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.5125 level while the British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6610 level.


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