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Wednesday September 30, 2009 - 12:25:12 GMT
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IMF Reports Weakens Demand for U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Dollar is down substantially across the board as an International Monetary Fund Report encouraged traders to lighten up their recent long positions.  Since late last week the U.S. Dollar has been gaining ground versus most major currencies as investors remained skeptical that the global economy was on track for a recovery.  Traders have been questioning whether the recovery would be able to sustain itself without the influence of central bank stimulus.

 

Yesterday’s weaker than expected U.S. consumer confidence report demonstrated that consumers are still the key to a recovery as this poor number ignited a rally in the Dollar and a break in U.S. equities.  Overnight, the IMF’s Global Stability Report reassured investors that the global economy would grow faster than expected and erased some of the doubt left in the market following yesterday’s weak U.S. consumer confidence report. 

 

The IMF report reduced estimated losses from the financial crisis by $600 billion to $3.4.  In reporting this substantial reduction in its estimate, the IMF said, “systemic risks have been substantially reduced following unprecedented policy actions and nascent signs of improvements in the real economy.”  The report went on to state that “there is growing confidence that the global economy has turned the corner, underpinning the improvements in financial markets.” 

 

Demand for the Dollar weakened on the news as traders felt more confident to seek higher yields in more risky assets.

 

The EUR USD is rebounding after sustaining losses earlier in the week.  It was reported early this morning that German unemployment dropped to 8% in September from a reported 8.3% in August.  The move in the Euro is expected to retrace 50% of the recent decline from the top.

 

The GBP USD is continuing the rally from yesterday which was triggered by a favorable U.K. Retail Sales and second quarter GDP Report.  The bullish IMF report is helping to extend the gains, which are still largely short-covering due to the recent sharp sell-off in the Pound.

 

The USD JPY is trading lower today despite a report yesterday from the Japanese Finance Minister saying that Japan would not hesitate to intervene against the Yen if a rapid rise in price was triggered by abnormal trading conditions.  This comment clarified last week’s statement which indicated the Bank of Japan would allow the Yen to rally without interference.

 

Stronger demand for higher risk assets is expected to put pressure on the USD CAD.  Overnight the Canadian Dollar is trading sharply higher on expectations of a rise in energy and equity prices today.

 

Demand for higher yielding assets because of the bullish IMF report is helping to boost the prices of the AUD USD and NZD USD.  Traders are also supporting the Aussie in anticipation of an interest rate hike before the end of the year.

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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