Wednesday February 9, 2005 - 00:45:57 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 9th February 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.8566 ... 1.8590 ... 1.8626 ... 1.8641
Support....: 1.8510 ... 1.8484 ... 1.8440 ... 1.8419
Mixed - waiting for breaks
We were slightly concerned with the dip to 1.8510 yesterday and causes us to wait for a break higher to follow the preferred retracement scenario. We require a move back above the 1.8556-66 area and if seen then we'd feel a little more comfortable with a short term bullish stance with next resistance at 1.8590 and then between 1.8626-41. Overall this should reach 1.8667-75 at least with 1.8715 also implied. However, given the additional low yesterday some caution should be used.
The dip to 1.8510 concerned slightly and does give a hint of a further downside threat. However we feel it prudent to wait for a break of 1.8510 again and probably 1.8484. If seen then the downside will resume with initial support at 1.8440 but we would expect this to break and see losses extend down to 1.8368 at least.
Elliott Wave Comments:
7th February 2005
The past week has not shown too much movement in either direction and certainly not enough to confirm whether the longer term downside is about to resume. It is possible that the 1.8524 low can be labeled Wave [a] and thus the 1.8927 will be Wave [b] except this is an exceptionally shallow recovery to the decline from the 1.9548 peak. Indeed, a move below the 1.8612-24 corrective lows would be needed to confirm further downside. Certainly a move below 1.8654 would cause losses to the 1.8524-40 level at least.
8th February 2005
The drop to 1.8546 appears to have completed a wave -iii- from 1.8927 and thus we expect further downside. However, first look for a Wave -iv- to develop that has Fibonacci levels at 1.8689 (38.2%) and 1.8733 (50%) and from this range we expect further losses.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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