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Thursday October 1, 2009 - 12:53:00 GMT
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Chart Pattern Suggests Weaker Equity Markets

Traders are bracing themselves ahead of today’s slew of economic reports.  Today the market is expected to react to U.S. initial claims, Supply Management’s Manufacturing Report, Pending Home Sales, Construction Spending, Personal Income and Spending, and New Car Sales Data.  In addition, Fed Chairman Bernanke is expected to talk today during market hours about new financial institution regulations.  The combination of all of these reports should create volatility.


U.S. equity markets are expected to open lower based on the overnight trade.  The slew of economic reports this morning is likely to trigger a volatile two-sided trade. Investors are still concerned that current price levels are too high given the expected slow-recovery in the economy.  The chart patterns in the equity markets suggest that a secondary lower top is being formed. A failure to break out over 1063.00 in the December E-mini S&P 500 is another sign of selling pressure.  The chart indicates that 1033.00 is still a downside target.


Look for a flat to lower opening in the U.S. Treasury market.  The December Treasury Bonds and Notes could surge to the upside if economic news comes out bearish and the equity markets break.  Gains could be limited because of tomorrow’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.  The December T-Bonds are still on path to test 123-00 over the near-term.


The U.S. Dollar is trading higher across the board overnight.  The strength in the Dollar is being attributed to overnight news that the European Union expressed concerns about the Euro rapid rise.  European financial ministers are expected to discuss the Euro’s rise at this weekend’s Group of 7 meeting.  European authorities are worried about the rise in the Euro and its possible negative effects on demand for Euro Zone goods and services.  This announcement has triggered a break in the Euro and sent spillover buying of the Dollar across all currency pairs.


The December Euro seems to be on path again to test a major retracement zone at 1.4444 to 1.4350.  Yesterday’s rally did not damage to the current downtrend.


The three day rally in the December British Pound appears to be over.  Based on the short-term range of 1.6467 to 1.5768, the British Pound completed a 50% retracement to 1.6125 and is not resuming its downtrend.  In addition, a U.K. manufacturing report indicated more weakness in the economy.


A possible intervention by the Swiss National Bank continues to weigh on the December Swiss Franc.  The December Japanese Yen is also down overnight.  Traders are concerned that despite recent comments to the contrary, the Bank of Japan would like to see some easing in the Japanese Yen.  Lower equity and energy prices could pressure the Canadian Dollar today. 


December Gold and Silver are feeling selling pressure overnight because of the stronger Dollar.  Technically, yesterday’s rally may have been a test of the recent top at 1025.00.  The chart pattern suggests that a secondary lower top may be forming which indicates another break to the downside.  $978.00 still remains a target.  Furthering strengthening today in the Dollar is likely to continue to pressure the precious metals.


Yesterday’s bullish gasoline report triggered short-covering rallies in both December Gasoline and December Crude Oil.  A surge in demand fueled a drawdown in gasoline inventories.  The lack of follow-through to the upside overnight is a strong sign that it was short-covering rather than fresh buying which triggered the rally in crude oil.  It is a sign of weakness in my opinion when demand for products sends the main contract higher.  Look for lower markets if the Dollar can maintain its overnight strength.


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