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GVI Forex-Week ahead Outlook and End of Week Post-mortem October 4, 2009

Week ahead Outlook and End of Week Post-mortem

The final three days of the latest week could provide some insight into was is to come. Wednesday saw quarter-end and an expectedly weak ADP survey. Those data were followed by a poor Chicago PMI employment sub-component and a disappointing weekly jobless claims survey. While much of these data did not feed directly into the monthly non-farm payroll survey on Friday, the weak picture they were painting saw street forecasts for the Friday data to be revised to a higher level of job losses in September. The expected loss of about -200K was revised to about -250K.

The worsening of the outlook for the economy saw stock prices fall sharply in the U.S. Thursday and bond prices improve (lower yields). Equity prices followed suit early Friday in the Far East by losing big as well. Thus global markets were already in a defensive posture before the poor data were released.

Friday trade was interesting in that the markets initially reacted to the poor jobless data by initially pushing equities lower and the USD higher. The problem was that there was no follow though on that trade because the markets had already been prepared for weak jobs data. Equities and the USD have a strange symbiotic relationship, and after the EUR/USD rebounded equities eventually followed.

The EUR/USD continues to trade a bit oddly. We would be willing to bet that assorted central banks came in as buyers of EUR/USD on the dip. Central Bankers are usually not very independent thinkers. The fad of the day is to diversify FX reserves out of the USD. Thus the big players China, Japan Russia etc., don’t always have to be the USD sellers. Much smaller entities could be doing the same thing in small amounts individually that add up to something in aggregate. This could explain why the EUR/USD always seems to find a bid on weakness.

The week ahead looks to be a relatively light one on the data front that will give the markets a freer rein to zone in on capital flows and the technicals.

Latest Week Analytical Highlights--

Friday AM
Following a number of weaker than expected economic reports this week, positive expectations for non-farm payrolls today have been trimmed back. One leading U.S. bank Thursday worsened its official payrolls forecast to a job loss of -250K from -200K. -175K to -200K had been the rough market consensus before the ADP data were released. Disappointing economic data from the U.S. Thursday weighed on equities, and that weakness yesterday spilled over into Far East equities today. Markets are worried about the EU referendum on today in Ireland, which failed the last time around.

Thursday PM
Disappointing economic data from the U.S. Thursday weighed on equities, and they in turn pulled the USD higher. Furthermore, the EUR was heavy vs. the USD and on its crosses, as some said that the markers were worried about the EU referendum on Friday in Ireland. More weaker-than-expected data had some worried about the U.S. Non-farm payrolls report early Friday. One leading U.S. bank Thursday raised its official payrolls forecast to -250K. Odds are now the markets will look past a disappointing outcome. Street estimates had been for a smaller job loss in September of about -192K after a loss of -216K in August.

Thursday AM
With quarter-end out of the way, the influence of special capital flows is expected to diminish. The focus now is on the U.S. employment report tomorrow. With more improvements seen, the only question is by how much and when. Odds are the markets will look past a disappointing outcome. Street estimates are for a smaller job loss in September of about -192K after a loss of -216K in August.

Wednesday PM
The equity to EUR/USD correlation is not working as well as it has been. Looking at an overlay chart, divergences were developing over the session again. End of quarter influences seemed to be impacting trade. Japanese repatriations are said to continue. Also there is talk that Tokyo equity fund managers have USD to sell to hedge the increased value of their U.S. equity portfolios from over the quarter.

Wednesday AM
Quarter-end finally at hand. The trading focus now turns to the U.S. employment data trifecta. ADP private employment report gets the ball rolling today. It is still not a reliable estimate of the government non-farm payroll data due Friday. The equity to EUR/USD correlation keeps coming in and out. Many are waiting to see what happens to the JPY after quarter-end influences are in the rear mirror.

Tuesday PM
Typical quarter-end with forex dealers playing their cards close to the vest. Another cause for caution is the non-farm payroll result set for early Friday. Street estimates are for a smaller job loss in September of about -192K after a loss of -216K in August. The ADP private job survey (-249K) was disappointing Wednesday, but that series has recently been overestimating job losses. The equity to EUR/USD correlation remains sporadic. Many are waiting to see what happens to the JPY after quarter-end influences are in the rear mirror.

Tuesday AM
Conditions were relatively thin on Monday as many were out in observance of Yom Kippur. Of interest, efforts to push the EUR/USD higher failed, despite the Merkel victory over the weekend. It’s a bad omen when a currency cannot rally on positive news. The Japanese FinMin Fujii may have started to backtrack on his strong JPY policy after the Nikkei tumbled on the higher JPY. The EUR/USD was weighed down out of the EUR/JPY cross. This has become a cross traders market.


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