Monday October 5, 2009 - 03:38:37 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 05-Oct-2009 - 0335 GMT
The Dow (9487.67) has fallen nearly 3.5% over the last two weeks. Last week it has fell nearly 2%. The NFP numbers on Friday continued to emit concerns over the health of the economy. One may expect some moderate correction this week as well. The Dow has an important Support 9200 this week.
The Asian indices are mixed today after bad US economic data on Friday and Roubini's concerns over the pace of rise in stocks and commodities. The Shanghai (2779.43) has been closed since the 1st of October. Nikkei and Hang Seng are trading higher by 0.05% and 0.22% respectively. Over the last three weeks, Nikkei has fallen nearly 7% and may be due for some short covering this week. The Sensex (17134.55) has, however, bucked the global trend and has risen 2.65% last week. It has been rising over the last several weeks and has surged nearly 13% over the last 8 weeks. We expect the Sensex to continue rising higher with some mild corrections on and off.
Crude (69.92) fell below 70 on Friday following the US NFP data that showed a drop of 263K against the expected decline of 179K. Resistance is seen in the region 70.50-71.00. If it holds we might see a drop towards 67.50 once again in the coming days. A strong break above 71 might see 73 on the upside.
Gold (1004.90) has risen from Friday's low of 987 and is now trading above 1000 taking Support from the weaker dollar following the NFP data released on Friday that showed a drop of 263K against the expected decline of 179K. If it continues to trade above 1000 we might see a rise towards 920 in the coming days. On the downside Support is seen at 990.
The Euro (1.4640) and Aussie (0.8742) has risen from their respective Friday's low of 1.4480 and 0.8567 and are trading higher, thereby keeping up their overall uptrend intact. For Euro Support is seen at 1.4575 and if it holds we might see a rise towards 1.4730-50 today. Aussie might see 0.8800-30 on the upside. Dollar-Yen (89.79) is trading below 90 and the overall downtrend continues with significant Resistance in the region 90.50-70. The Euro-Yen (131.44) Cross might test the Resistance at 132.50 today.
The Pound (1.5977) has risen from Friday's low of 1.5802. Resistance is seen at 1.6080. Dollar-Swiss continues to remain bearish with strong Resistance in the region 1.0400-50.
The Korean Won continues to trade strong near 1178.Dollar-Ruppee has opened at 47.62/64.
3M USD LIBOR was set at 0.28% on Friday. The yields on US Treasurioes have risen slightly. The 10Y benchmark yields were quoted at 3.22% higher by 5 bps and the 30Y bonds have Support at 4%. The yields are in an overall downtrend over the last few months. To see the chart of US yields, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00
09:00 GMT EU Retail Sales
...Actual 5.5%...Previous 5.7%
Sep US NFP
...Actual -263K...Previous - 201K
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