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Tuesday October 6, 2009 - 12:33:38 GMT
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Global Equity Markets Rise as Investors Pin Hopes on Recovery

U.S. Equity markets are called better this morning based on the strong upside action in the global stock markets.  Traders are a little more optimistic today because of yesterday’s strong showing in the U.S. ISM Services Report.  Last week traders were concerned about job losses and falling manufacturing, but this week traders seem more optimistic about the economic recovery.


This optimism is driving stock prices up ahead of the start of the earnings season.  Gains may be pared later today as traders position themselves ahead of tomorrow’s first report from Alcoa.  Investors want to see an increase in earnings fueled by increased revenues.  Traders may become skeptical about the economy if earnings are up because expenses were slashed.


December Treasury Bonds and T-Notes could see downside pressure today if U.S. equity markets surge to the upside.  Last Friday’s closing price reversal top is still weighing on the markets and is a strong indication that the selling is greater than the buying at current levels.  T-Bonds came close to a major 50% objective late last week.  This may be the technical catalyst behind the developing weakness.


The U.S. Dollar is expected to open lower against all major currencies this morning except the British Pound.  Increased appetite for more risky assets is pressuring the Dollar overnight while weak fundamentals continue to hurt the British Pound.


The Dollar is also seeing selling pressure following a story that Saudi Arabia and other large crude oil customers such as China may be considering pricing a barrel of oil in a currency other than the Dollar. 


The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked its benchmark interest rate overnight by 0.25% to 3.25 percent.  The news wires are calling this “unexpected”, but the trading action yesterday indicated that traders were already beginning to price in this hike.  This increase in interest rates may be an indication that the Asian-Pacific economic zone may be outperforming the U.S. and Europe.


Increased demand for risk is helping to boost the December Euro.  Yesterday’s better than expected U.S. ISM Services Sector Report is helping to boost equity prices as well as some commodities.  The move by the RBA is also renewing confidence that a global economic recovery may be starting soon.


The December British Pound is trading lower following the release of a worse than expected U.K. Factory Output Report.  Traders are also reluctant to buy the Pound ahead of Thursday’s key Bank of England meeting.  Investors are certain interest rates will remain unchanged at 1%, but aren’t sure whether the BoE will make adjustments to its asset-buyback program.


Greater demand for risky assets is pressuring the Dollar versus the Japanese Yen.  Traders are taking the Yen up slowly because of fear of an intervention by the Bank of Japan if volatility gets too high and if prices move abnormally or without economic reasons.


Higher crude oil and equity prices are boosting the Canadian Dollar.  Although this currency remains inside of a sizeable range, price increases in both of these asset classes is expected to keep upside pressure on the Canadian Dollar.


Look for December Gold to continue to rise as long as the U.S. Dollar remains under pressure.  The rally is beginning to pick-up steam as it approaches last month’s high at $1025.00.  Volatility could be high and traders should expect about a 1% movement in price per day.  This means we could see swings of $10 or greater as the price rises.


The weaker Dollar and greater demand for higher risk commodities should help to boost December Crude Oil today.  Supply and Demand are still major concerns but that shouldn’t bother speculators. 


Talk of an early frost helped boost December Corn yesterday.  We saw a similar move last month that faded quickly.  Watch to see if there is a follow-through rally today.  This is a risky trade as the upside is still limited by oversupply.


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