Global Equity Markets Rise as Investors Pin Hopes on Recovery
U.S. Equity markets are called better this
morning based on the strong upside action in the global stock markets.Traders are a little more optimistic today
because of yesterdayâ€™s strong showing in the U.S. ISM Services Report.Last week traders were concerned about job
losses and falling manufacturing, but this week traders seem more optimistic
about the economic recovery.
This optimism is driving stock prices up
ahead of the start of the earnings season.Gains may be pared later today as traders position themselves ahead of
tomorrowâ€™s first report from Alcoa.Investors want to see an increase in earnings fueled by increased
revenues.Traders may become skeptical
about the economy if earnings are up because expenses were slashed.
December Treasury Bonds and T-Notes could
see downside pressure today if U.S.
equity markets surge to the upside.Last
Fridayâ€™s closing price reversal top is still weighing on the markets and is a
strong indication that the selling is greater than the buying at current
levels.T-Bonds came close to a major
50% objective late last week.This may
be the technical catalyst behind the developing weakness.
The U.S. Dollar is expected to open lower
against all major currencies this morning except the British Pound.Increased appetite for more risky assets is
pressuring the Dollar overnight while weak fundamentals continue to hurt the
The Dollar is also seeing selling pressure
following a story that Saudi Arabia
and other large crude oil customers such as China may be considering pricing a
barrel of oil in a currency other than the Dollar.
The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked
its benchmark interest rate overnight by 0.25% to 3.25 percent.The news wires are calling this â€śunexpectedâ€ť,
but the trading action yesterday indicated that traders were already beginning
to price in this hike.This increase in
interest rates may be an indication that the Asian-Pacific economic zone may be
outperforming the U.S. and Europe.
Increased demand for risk is helping to
boost the December Euro.Yesterdayâ€™s
better than expected U.S. ISM Services Sector Report is helping to boost equity
prices as well as some commodities.The
move by the RBA is also renewing confidence that a global economic recovery may
be starting soon.
The December British Pound is trading lower
following the release of a worse than expected U.K. Factory Output Report.Traders are also reluctant to buy the Pound
ahead of Thursdayâ€™s key Bank of England meeting.Investors are certain interest rates will
remain unchanged at 1%, but arenâ€™t sure whether the BoE will make adjustments
to its asset-buyback program.
Greater demand for risky assets is
pressuring the Dollar versus the Japanese Yen.Traders are taking the Yen up slowly because of fear of an intervention
by the Bank of Japan if volatility gets too high and if prices move abnormally
or without economic reasons.
Higher crude oil and equity prices are
boosting the Canadian Dollar.Although
this currency remains inside of a sizeable range, price increases in both of
these asset classes is expected to keep upside pressure on the Canadian Dollar.
Look for December Gold to continue to rise
as long as the U.S. Dollar remains under pressure.The rally is beginning to pick-up steam as it
approaches last monthâ€™s high at $1025.00.Volatility could be high and traders should expect about a 1% movement
in price per day.This means we could
see swings of $10 or greater as the price rises.
The weaker Dollar and greater demand for
higher risk commodities should help to boost December Crude Oil today.Supply and Demand are still major concerns
but that shouldnâ€™t bother speculators.
Talk of an early frost helped boost
December Corn yesterday.We saw a
similar move last month that faded quickly.Watch to see if there is a follow-through rally today.This is a risky trade as the upside is still
limited by oversupply.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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